🌍 Geopolitical Outlook & Crypto Impact
📉 Sharp Risk-Off Reaction
Following Israel’s June 13 airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military sites, major global asset sell-offs emerged. Oil prices jumped ~7–11%, the U.S. dollar and gold surged, and stock futures dropped sharply .
Bitcoin initially plunged ~4–6%, dipping under $103K–104K before stabilizing near ~$105K .
Ethereum and altcoins hit harder: ETH down ~7–9%, Solana ~8–11%, XRP ~5–8%, with over $1 billion in leveraged crypto liquidations in just 24 hours .
🛡️ Crypto Isn’t (Yet) a Safe Haven
While gold rose 1–1.3%, Bitcoin dropped 2–4%, fueling debate on whether BTC functions as “digital gold.” Notably, financial commentator Peter Schiff argued Bitcoin failed to act as a crisis hedge this time .
Markets appear to treat crypto as a high-risk asset, similar to tech stocks, rather than a traditional safe haven .
📈 Potential for Rebound
Historical patterns suggest BTC often rebounds after such geopolitical shocks. Analysts note this crisis mirrors the October 2024 Israel–Iran escalation, where BTC dropped ~8% then surged ~80% over the following weeks .
Technical indicators show BTC may be bouncing off its 50-day SMA, hinting at resiliency .
🧭 What to Watch Next
1.Escalation Levels – Further strikes or retaliations could extend volatility and deepen sell-offs.
2.Institutional Inflows – Even amid drops, BTC continued inflows (~$86M reported before escalation)      .
3.Macro Support – If BTC holds ~50-day MA, history suggests possible strong bounce in 4–8 weeks.
4.Safe Haven Comparisons – Continued outperformance of gold vs bitcoin may reshape investor narratives