The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, and it's unlikely that Iran can close it due to several reasons [CNBC, Al Jazeera]:
- Geography: The strait spans 35-60 miles wide, mostly through Omani waters, making it difficult for Iran to block.
- Alternative routes: Ships can bypass Iranian territory via UAE and Oman routes.
- US military presence: The U.S. Fifth Fleet patrols from nearby Bahrain, providing additional security.
- China's interests: China buys 75% of Iranian oil and would likely exert economic pressure on Iran to keep the strait open.
- Iran's own needs: Iran relies on the strait for its own imports, making closure counterproductive.
Experts like Anas Alhajji and Ellen Wald emphasize that closing the Strait of Hormuz is both unlikely and physically impossible for Iran. China's economic influence and the strait's geography make it a challenging task for Iran to block the waterway, which sees 20 million barrels of oil flow daily.