#以色列伊朗冲突 Oil Field Could Trigger Global Inflation Crisis
If the Israeli Air Force launches a surprise attack on Iranian oil facilities, what kind of chain reaction will the global financial markets face? Capital Economics' latest simulation shows that once this geopolitical powder keg is ignited, Brent crude oil could soar from the current $75/barrel by 30%-50%, skyrocketing into the $80-100 range. This 'oil shockwave' could completely rewrite the script for interest rate cuts by central banks in Europe and America.
Energy costs account for more than 7% of the CPI in Europe and America; for every $10 increase in oil prices, inflation in developed economies could be pushed up by 0.3-0.6 percentage points. If the conflict leads to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with refinery capacity losses, energy inflation could raise core CPI by about 0.5-1.0% within three months, causing multiple countries' inflation reduction processes to regress by 6-9 months.
On the surface, oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia may increase production to stabilize oil prices, but it is important to note that the current OPEC+ spare capacity is about 5.8 million barrels per day, theoretically enough to fully offset Iran's 2.5 million barrels per day loss. However, geopolitical risk premiums often lead oil-producing countries to adopt a 'wait and see' approach. Historically, during similar crises, OPEC+ has typically lagged by 4-6 weeks before releasing capacity, which is enough to detach inflation expectations.
The Federal Reserve is facing its most complex interest rate cut cycle since 2006: if the oil price shock keeps PCE inflation above 3%, the probability of a rate cut in September will plunge from the current 72% to less than 40%. More dangerously, the spiral rise of energy prices and service sector inflation—the wage-price linkage mechanism—could keep core inflation stubbornly above 3% well into mid-2025.
The crude oil futures curve has shown a steepening of near-term contracts.
Inflation-protected securities (TIPS) have implied inflation expectations exceeding 2.4%.
The dollar index and gold are both rising, indicating a flight to safety.
This yet-to-explode geopolitical crisis essentially reflects the fragile balance of the global economy between 'soft landing' and 'reinflation.' Investors need to be vigilant: while central banks are still debating the extent of interest rate cuts, conflict in the Middle East may have already made the choice for them.
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