When Trump announced the expiration of the 60-day ultimatum to Iran on Twitter, the fuse of the Middle East powder keg was already sizzling. Under the shadow of war, the cryptocurrency market has never been simply a 'hedge paradise' or a 'meat grinder' - it is more like a prism, reflecting the greed, fear, and survival laws of the decentralized world.

One, short-term panic: the dual game of 'hedging' and 'escaping the top'

1. Traditional hedging siphoning, short-term pressure on the crypto world (negative)

Gold ETFs have continuously increased holdings by over 6 tons, and gold prices aim for $3,500, the siphoning effect of a millennium-old consensus is becoming evident: institutional funds prioritize 'visible safety', and the crypto world faces short-term fund diversion. When the Middle Eastern conflict escalated in 2024, Bitcoin once plummeted 12% within 72 hours, contrasting sharply with gold's 15% increase - in extreme panic, the moat of 'old hedging' remains difficult to cross.

2. Partial capital breakout, the demand for dark lines erupts (positive)

But war can also tear open the 'fiat currency cage':

  • The urgent need for cross-border transfer: When Iranian capital encounters sanctions/freezes, USDT becomes a 'digital lifeboat' (Iran's crypto trading platform saw a 400% week-over-week increase in trading volume in 2025);

  • Activated black market ecology: Demand for cryptocurrency from dark web trading and arms settlements (though illegal, it verifies the 'anti-censorship' attribute).
    This'gray channel' demand, allows the crypto world to form an independent upward logic in the local market - just like during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, Bitcoin premiums in Russian-speaking regions once soared to 10%.

Two, mid-term logic: fund diversion and track breakout

1. The 'butterfly effect' of inflation and interest rate cuts

War pushes up oil prices → inflation expectations heat up → Fed interest rate cuts delayed? If inflation spirals out of control, gold (anti-inflation) and Bitcoin (anti-fiat depreciation) may strengthen simultaneously (during the 2020 rate cut cycle, their correlation reached 0.8); if conflict suppresses the economy, early rate cuts may occur, and the liquidity feast will simultaneously nourish both gold and the crypto world.


Key variable: The Federal Reserve's policy choices - this is the 'trump card' that determines the mid-term direction of the crypto market. 2. Regulatory shadow war: risks and opportunities coexist

  • Negative aspect: The U.S. may strengthen crypto regulation (to prevent funds from flowing to Iran), with the 'Anti-Money Laundering Law for Crypto Assets' already introduced in 2025, freezing involved wallets becoming the norm;

  • Positive aspect: Countries like Iran tacitly allow crypto mining (Iran's mining scale surged by 30% in 2025), creating a 'regulatory arbitrage' space to bypass sanctions.

Three, long-term narrative: the decentralized 'survival experiment'

1. 'Practical test' of anti-censorship value

When the SWIFT system becomes a weapon of war, Bitcoin's 'decentralized network' is undergoing a practical test:

  • In 2024, a Middle Eastern country procured arms using Bitcoin (on-chain tracing revealed a massive transfer);

  • The Iranian people receive overseas aid through cryptocurrency (bypassing bank blockades).
    This'de-trust' value transmission, is reshaping people's understanding of currency.

2. The 'Achilles' heel' of infrastructure

The destructive power of war far exceeds imagination:

  • In 2023, a major power outage in Lebanon led to a regional drop in Bitcoin prices by 30% (trading suspended + panic selling);

  • Communication base stations were destroyed, the risk of losing private keys increased dramatically...
    The collapse of the physical world will directly penetrate the 'digital barrier' of crypto assets, this is the cruelest negative for the crypto world.

Conclusion: The 'truth' of the crypto world revealed by war

Trump's ultimatum tore open not only the fissures of the Middle East situation but also the 'shame cloth' of the crypto market:

  • It is neither a perfect hedge tool (short-term crushed by gold) nor a purely speculative toy (long-term carries anti-censorship narrative);

  • The real opportunity lies hidden in **'the scenarios of capital breakout' and 'the gaps of regulatory arbitrage'** - while the risks always come from 'the fragility of consensus' and 'the shocks of the physical world'.


At this moment, when missile trajectories resonate with K-line charts, crypto investors need to think clearly: are you betting on a 'digital revolution' or another 'speculative carnival'?

#以色列伊朗冲突 $BTC