The news front is surging.
Technical undercurrents are stirring.
Bitcoin's script swings wildly between policy and K lines!
News front:
A duet of policy and capital.
Macroeconomic good news cools down:
The US May CPI inflation data came in below expectations (year-on-year 2.4%), theoretically favorable for risk assets, but the market has already priced in this expectation. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates before September, and policy uncertainty suppresses bullish enthusiasm.
Regulatory Turn Accelerates:
The new SEC chairman openly supports 'self-custody' and on-chain innovation, overturning the previous administration's suppression policies. The GENIUS stablecoin bill and Circle's listing pave the way for mid-term liquidity injection.
Geopolitical games add variables:
The easing of US-China tariff negotiations boosts risk appetite, but the conflict between Trump and Musk exacerbates market volatility; political uncertainty remains a short-term black swan.
Technical aspect: A 'tightrope' market under high pressure.
Support: $104,000 (the dividing line for bulls and bears, light positions to test long);
Resistance: $107,000 (breaking this opens up upward space, targeting 110,000+).
Indicator signals diverge:
MACD: Golden cross but red bars shorten, fast and slow lines narrow at high levels, risk of death cross surges.
Bollinger Bands: Opening expands, indicating increased volatility, but prices are tightly clinging to the upper band, with overbought pullback pressure accumulating;
Volume: Institutional funds are gradually flowing in through ETFs, but retail investors lack sufficient volume chasing highs, with volume-price divergence warning of risks.
Policy warmth struggles against technological high pressure; 107,000 is the battleground for bulls and bears!
Break-even strategy: Targeted remedies for three types of holdings.
Stuck after chasing longs above 105,000:
If it rebounds to 107,000, reduce positions to stop losses; decisively exit if it drops below 104,000;
111,718 high position trapped:
Be patient; if it retraces to 104,000, consider adding positions in batches to lower the average price;
For those on the sidelines:
Strictly adhere to discipline: Light positions to test long at 104,000 (stop loss at 103,500), add positions if it breaks 107,000.
