$ETH

Short-term Pressure (June-July)

Current price $2545 (down 3.72% from the previous day) is in a critical game zone, with $2500 acting as a psychological support level and $2700-2788 forming a strong resistance area.

Technical indicators are contradictory: the 15-minute level shows a buy signal (driven by high-frequency trading), but the daily level presents a "strong sell" signal, indicating that institutional funds are exiting.

Key event risk: Israel's military actions against Iran have led to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could trigger sudden sell-offs (historical case: on June 8, 2025, there was a single-day drop of 8% to $2412).

Mid-term Opportunities (Q3-Q4)

Bull Market Catalyst: The Federal Reserve may initiate a rate cut cycle in September (with a probability of 68% according to Reuters models), combined with ETH ETF net inflows for four consecutive weeks (totaling over $1.2 billion), which will drive prices above $3000.

On-chain data shows: the number of addresses holding 1000+ ETH has increased by 2.1% compared to last month, and large whales continue to accumulate $ETH