Casus Belli — Latin for “cause for war” — is once again shaping the global economy in the months ahead. And this time, it’s serious.
📜 Israel has officially launched Operation "Am Kalavi" (“With the People as a Lion”). It has already struck Iran’s nuclear program and long-range missile infrastructure — including the Natanz nuclear facility.
According to Israeli officials, this is the point of no return.
As always in times like these, markets reacted with a sharp drop. Liquidity is being pulled from risk assets and redirected into gold. We’re likely to see a new ATH for gold today.
🟠 Historically, the U.S. has played a dual role in the region:
— As Israel’s protector
— And as the main moderator of Iran relations
But now Trump is back in the White House, and his rhetoric — as usual — walks the edge:
> “I don’t want Israel to strike — it’ll ruin everything.”
> “We’re close to a deal with Iran.”
> “There’s a real chance of a major conflict. Something could happen.”
🟠 He wants a deal, not a war — because it’s electorally beneficial.
But is he really in control? Hard to say.
This isn’t the first time we’ve been here.
⏸ The Middle East has always been a geopolitical core of the global economy, and each round of escalation sets off a cascade of market reactions:
— Israel–Palestine conflict → gold and oil rally
— Threat of Hormuz Strait blockade → spike in fuel prices
— Sanctions on Iran → global inflation pressure
— Hamas & Hezbollah → capital flight into safe havens (USD, gold)
🟠 These events always end with a surge in volatility, liquidity outflows from risk assets, including crypto. A bit of history:
— May 2018: U.S. exited the Iran nuclear deal → sparked early escalation fears
→ BTC dropped ~5%, correction lasted about a week
— January 2020: Soleimani killed, Iran retaliated
→ BTC down ~3–4%, recovered in ~7 days
— April 2024: Iran launched missiles at Israel
→ BTC fell 8%, took nearly a month to recover
➡️ Crypto doesn’t like geopolitics — and reacts fast with steep drops.
First signs of risk → institutions go to cash → overvalued alts deflate → capital flees to USD/gold
But crypto has another side:
— When regional currencies lose trust
— When money printing accelerates (especially for defense spending)
— When U.S. national debt passes $36 trillion
🟠 That’s when people remember: Bitcoin isn’t just an asset — it’s an alternative.
If Israel continues the campaign and Iran responds, we may face a repeat of 2019 — but in a much more volatile environment:
— Oil and gold prices surge (already happening)
— USD strengthens as a safe haven (which it badly needs)
— Treasury yields rise (already elevated)
— Stock market dips (watch market open)
— Risk sectors — including crypto — take a hit (already underway)
🟠 Sometimes, crypto market drops during geopolitical crises are short-lived, but every case is different, and forecasting here is tricky.
Stay alert, manage your risks carefully, and hedge your high-risk positions.
