On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a large-scale military operation code-named 'Lion's Strength' against Iran, marking a sharp escalation in the Middle East situation. This conflict was not accidental but a direct result of the Trump administration's long-term 'maximum pressure' policy on Iran. From withdrawing from the nuclear deal to acquiescing to Israel's military adventures, Trump's diplomatic legacy is triggering a potentially uncontrollable total war in the Middle East.
1. Trump's 'maximum pressure' and the deterioration of the Iranian nuclear crisis
In 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, reimposing comprehensive sanctions on Iran and adopting a 'maximum pressure' policy, attempting to force Tehran to capitulate. However, this strategy did not weaken Iran's nuclear program; instead, it accelerated its uranium enrichment activities. By early 2025, Iran was close to a breakthrough in nuclear weapons, prompting Israel to consider a preemptive strike. In April 2025, Trump even publicly threatened, 'If diplomacy fails, I will lead the war against Iran.'
2. Israel's military adventures and Trump's acquiescence
Israel has long viewed Iran as an existential threat, and the Trump administration's hardline stance has provided it with the space to take action. Although the US did not directly participate in this airstrike, intelligence sharing and strategic coordination allowed Israel to precisely target Iranian nuclear facilities and high-ranking commanders. Trump had previously warned Iran that 'the next wave of strikes will be more brutal,' and hinted at support for Israel's military actions.
3. Iran's retaliation and the risk of regional war
Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei vowed to 'severely punish' Israel and may retaliate through ballistic missiles, drones, or proxy warfare (such as Hezbollah and the Houthis). Global oil prices have surged by 8% due to the conflict, causing turmoil in global markets. If Iran chooses to directly attack Israeli territory, it could trigger US military intervention, leading to a full-scale war.
4. Trump's political calculations and the chaos in the Middle East
Trump has consistently focused on the Middle East as the centerpiece of his foreign policy, attempting to solidify domestic support through a tough stance. However, his strategy has exacerbated regional instability, leaving US-Iran negotiations at a standstill. If this conflict spirals out of control, it could become a political bargaining chip for Trump's return to the White House, but it may also drag the US back into the quagmire of Middle Eastern wars.
Conclusion: A war that might reshape the Middle Eastern landscape
Trump's 'maximum pressure' policy did not bring Iran to its knees; rather, it accelerated the arrival of war. Israel's military actions have disrupted the regional balance, and Iran's retaliation will determine whether the conflict escalates into a full-scale war. The international community is calling for restraint, but the legacy issues of the Trump era continue to drive the situation toward an unpredictable abyss.