With a market cap exceeding one trillion, Bitcoin (BTC) has weathered over a decade of ups and downs. Historically, each significant increase has been accompanied by deep adjustments lasting months or even years—2013, 2017, 2021-22, bear markets seem to be the inevitable outcome of Bitcoin's cyclical theory. However, with the arrival of 2025, a group of heavyweight voices represented by Michael Saylor claims: 'No bear market anymore.' At various levels of institutions, capital, market structure, and holding mentality, bear markets may become a thing of the past.

Institutional wave: Fundamental reshaping of supply-demand patterns

  • ETF giant's ballast
    Since the approval of the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., products from financial giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK Invest have collectively absorbed hundreds of billions of dollars in inflows, with net inflows in a single quarter easily exceeding the current output of miners. The supply-side pressure from miners is programmatically 'cleaned out,' while the demand-side buyers are continuously flowing in—this new normal of 'de-mining, with institutions as the main players' severely weakens the previous bear market's collapse soil, which was triggered by a sudden increase in supply.

  • The definition of 'bear market' is invalid
    In Saylor's view, the past declines triggered by retail panic and miner reductions have been completely replaced by 'permanent capital.' As long as institutional buying continues, a simple price pullback—even if it reaches 20% or 30%—seems more like a healthy breath of the market rather than a systemic collapse of the 'bear market.'

Cycle myth: The end of bull-bear cycles

  • Early speculation vs. perpetual layout
    The extreme volatility of 2013 and 2017 stemmed from the zero-sum game of high-frequency speculators and 'crypto cowboys' over prices; now, MicroStrategy continuously hoards coins with equity and convertible bonds, maintaining a very low debt ratio, becoming the best model. Even with significant short-term price fluctuations, the company can replenish ammunition through buybacks or additional issuances of preferred stock, fundamentally eliminating the chain reaction of 'forced selling.'

  • The marginal reduction of halving effects
    As the market highly anticipates the 'halving' mechanism, supply-side shocks are gradually being absorbed. Coupled with the rising proportion of miner fees and gradually increasing transaction fees, future halving events are unlikely to trigger the dramatic ups and downs seen in 2017-18.

Volatility and selling pressure: Entering a new stable normal

  • Historical and implied volatility both decline
    The current 30-day annualized historical volatility has dropped to around 30%, significantly down from the 80%+ common in previous peak cycles; the implied volatility indicator has also fallen below 20%, indicating that the market's premium for 'fear of a crash' is retreating. The market no longer swings violently due to single news, but instead presents smoother fluctuations.

  • Narrowing of pullback amplitude
    Even if the maximum annual drawdown reaches 25-30%, it is different from the 70% or 80% bear market bloodbath of the past. This amplitude resembles a routine adjustment of mature assets, with capital flows remaining relatively orderly.

Network effects and long-term holding: Realization of value consensus

  • MVRV high position 'evergreen'
    Market Value/Realized Value (MVRV) continues to maintain in the 2.2-2.3 range, indicating that the vast majority of holders are in an unrealized profit state, rather than 'deeply trapped waiting for a peak.' The wave of long-term holding (HODL) is intensifying, while the proportion of short-term arbitrageurs continues to decline, thus the selling pressure is being continuously diluted.

  • 'Digital gold' - a dual role of hedging and allocation
    An increasing number of sovereign funds and corporate balance sheets are beginning to equip Bitcoin to hedge against inflation and traditional financial risks. The network effect is solidifying Bitcoin from a 'speculative asset' to an 'allocative asset,' providing solid support for its price.

Regulatory clarity: Marginal reduction of policy risk

  • Global regulatory roadmap
    With the sequential implementation of the U.S. SEC on ETF, custody, KYC/AML, the gradual implementation of the EU MiCA regulations, and Asian countries accelerating the construction of digital asset frameworks—these clear institutional red lines allow investors to avoid panic selling in the face of regulatory uncertainties. A stable policy environment helps to continuously push down bear market risk premiums.

Under the multiple forces of institutional funds, institutional frameworks, on-chain consensus, and long-term logic, Bitcoin is moving towards a new era of 'bull market normalcy and bear market scarcity.' As Saylor said, 'There are no more bear markets'—this is neither an absolute promise of zero price volatility nor blind optimism, but a forward-looking judgment of a healthy, highly mature market model under the new pattern. For investors, understanding and embracing this turning point may be key to participating in the next round of value leap.

Finally, according to my consistent practice, as an ordinary person, I can pay attention to altcoins simultaneously, as we cannot hold Bitcoin long-term waiting for it to multiply by 10 or 100 times. We focus on altcoins, not waiting for 10 or 20 years, but achieving dozens or hundreds of times in a few months or 1-2 years. Our goals are different, our positions are different, our timing is different, and our needs and requirements are different, so we must allocate a relatively large number of altcoins.