BTC/USDT Market Update** 🚨
**Current Price:** $104,723.50 (-2.61% 24h)
**24h Range:** $102,664.31 - $108,450.16
**Volume:** 2.94B USDT
### Key Technical Observations:
1. **Oversold Signals:**
- RSI(6) at **22.86** (strongest oversold since May)
- Stochastic RSI dipping to **9.34**
2. **Critical Support:**
- Trading near Bollinger Lower Band ($104,301)
- Key defense at $102,664 (24h low)
3. **Momentum:**
- MACD histogram deep negative (-597) but nearing exhaustion
- Volatility contraction in price action
### Next Move Probability:
- **Short-term (6-12h):** Expect technical bounce toward $106,500 - $107,900 (mid-Bollinger/EMA resistance). Rebound probability elevated given extreme oversold readings.
- **Critical Watch:**
- *Break below $102,600* → Accelerated drop to $100,300 (liquidity zone)
- *Hold above $104,300* → Relief rally initiation
### Strategic Suggestions:
✅ **Scalpers:**
- Long entries near $104,300 with tight stops ($103,900)
- TP1: $105,800 / TP2: $107,200
⛔ **Swing Traders:**
- Wait for MACD crossover confirmation (DIF/DEA convergence)
- Monitor 4h candle close above $105,200 for reversal signal
> 📌 **Risk Note:** Downward channel remains intact. Reduce position sizes until daily RSI(14) > 40 (currently 34.38). Fed speech volatility expected tonight.
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**Visual Guide:**
- Green zone: Optimal bounce entry ($104,300-$104,700)
- Red zone: Bearish breakout trigger ($102,600)
- Arrow: Probable rebound path to $106K+
*Always use stop-losses. Trade what you see, not what you hope.* 🔍