1. Geopolitical aspect – The balance of power in the Middle East is changing
Nature of the conflict:
• Iran uses a 'proxy war' strategy, funding and arming Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Palestine), Houthis (Yemen), and Shiite militia groups in Iraq and Syria.
• Israel responds with a pre-emptive campaign targeting Iran's military infrastructure and allied groups with Tehran in Syria and Lebanon.
• Recent escalation: In April–May 2024, Iran directly attacked Israel for the first time with UAVs and missiles, marking a dangerous turning point.
International situation:
• The US – EU supports Israel but is concerned that a wider war could disrupt global interests (oil, Red Sea security).
• Russia and China covertly support Iran as a counterweight to the US in the Middle East, especially as Iran joins BRICS+.
Geopolitical conclusion:
The confrontation is no longer indirect. If one side accidentally crosses the 'red line', the entire Middle East could erupt into a multi-party war. The Israel – Iran conflict is not a bilateral conflict but a mini East-West conflict axis, similar to the NATO vs Russia – China model in Europe.
2. Economic impact – Especially on energy and maritime transport
Main risks:
• Strait of Hormuz (controlled by Iran) – a transit point for over 20% of global oil production. If Iran blocks it, oil prices could rise by 50–100% in just a few days.
• The Red Sea and the Suez Canal (partially controlled by Houthis): Attacks on cargo ships have caused shipping costs to rise by 200–300% within weeks, creating a domino effect on global supply chains.
Markets heavily impacted:
• Oil (WTI, Brent): extremely sensitive to news from Iran or Israel.
• Gold: always heavily bought whenever tensions escalate.
• Stocks: global markets (especially Europe, the US) are prone to short-term sell-offs due to heightened risk sentiment.
3. Impact on financial markets – Crypto and speculation
a. How does crypto react?
• BTC/ETH may initially rise slightly due to their 'safe haven' role, but if war actually breaks out, money will strongly withdraw from risk assets.
• In the latest escalation (April 2024), BTC lost nearly 12% within 5 days after Iran fired missiles at Israel, as the market feared systemic risk.
b. Trends:
• Money will shift to gold, USD, oil, withdrawing from stocks, crypto, and tech assets.
• Altcoins will be more heavily impacted than BTC due to higher speculation and lower liquidity.
Preventive strategy:
• Crypto traders should lower leverage when escalating news appears.
• Prioritize observing BTC's reaction to strong support levels (e.g., $104,000–105,000). If this level breaks in the context of negative geopolitical news, the likelihood of a market-wide sell-off is very high.
Summary conclusion
• Israel – Iran is currently the most dangerous geopolitical hotspot, with widespread impacts from energy, maritime issues to global finance.
• Investors need to be highly cautious during early-week trading (Monday), as weekend news may create shock volatility.
• A comprehensive war has not yet occurred, but risks are accumulating. Trading needs to be accompanied by risk management and quick reactions to news.