The main impacts of the Israel-Iran conflict on the global economy include:

1. **Oil Price Volatility**: The conflict threatens shipping in the Persian Gulf (which accounts for 1/3 of global oil shipping routes), potentially driving up oil prices and exacerbating global inflation.

2. **Safe-Haven Sentiment**: Capital flows into the dollar and gold, increasing outflow pressure on emerging markets.

3. **Trade Disruptions**: The risk in key shipping lanes (Strait of Hormuz) rises, increasing shipping costs and insurance premiums.

4. **Market Panic**: Global stock market volatility intensifies, risk assets come under pressure, and companies delay investment decisions.

The extent of the short-term impact depends on whether the conflict escalates; if it continues to expand, it could trigger an energy crisis and stagflation risks.