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Brief analysis of the Israel - Iran tension situation
Summary of developments:
The conflict between Israel and Iran is no longer new, but it has escalated significantly since 2024 after Iran increased support for armed groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, while Israel responded with airstrikes targeting Iranian forces in Syria and large-scale cyber attacks. The recent peak has been direct attacks between the two countries – something that had previously been avoided to prevent a full-scale war.
Strategic key points:
• Iran wants to expand its regional influence, using a 'proxy' strategy through irregular armed forces.
• Israel is determined to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and strengthening military influence near its borders.
• The US and Western allies continue to support Israel but are also concerned about the conflict spreading, drawing the entire Middle East into a vortex of instability.
Short-term impacts:
• Oil and gold prices rise sharply whenever tensions escalate due to concerns over supply disruptions and geopolitical risks.
• Global stock markets are often negatively affected during military escalations.
• The risk of regional war or widespread cyber attacks is real.
Quick assessment:
The Israel – Iran conflict is not merely about two countries, but a strategic battle between opposing ideologies and regional influence. Although both sides are still 'holding the red line', any action that crosses the threshold could trigger a full-scale war in the Middle East.
