Three Possible Developments of the Israel-Iran War and Their Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market
1. Escalation of Conflict (Probability 30%)
Trigger Condition: Iran's large-scale retaliation (e.g., blocking the Strait of Hormuz/attacking US bases).
Possible Pathways:
→ Israel launches a ground offensive, US aircraft carriers intervene
→ Global oil prices soar to $150/barrel, triggering an economic crisis
→ Hundreds of casualties on both sides
→ BTC drops 5%-10%, altcoins drop over 20%, BTC falls then rebounds, gold continues to rise
Both sides suffer severe damage to infrastructure, but the risk of the Iranian regime collapsing is higher (economic collapse first)
2. Limited Confrontation (Probability 60%)
Current Most Likely Path:
→ Iran's symbolic retaliation (e.g., attacks on Israeli embassies abroad/rocket attacks by proxies)
→ Targeted Israeli airstrikes to avoid full-scale war
→ International mediation (involvement of China, Russia, and Europe), returning to “shadow war” mode
→ BTC rebounds and breaks new highs, whale manipulation completes the final washout, pushing to $120,000, altcoins recover
Impact: Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, oil prices maintain a risk premium of $80–$100,
leading to a long-term increase in energy prices,
Iran's economy slowly bleeding.
3. De-escalation of the Situation (Probability 10%)
Prerequisite: High domestic anti-war sentiment in Iran, policy shift in Israel after elections.
Key Variables: US pressure on Israel after the elections, or the resumption of negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal.
BTC surges stronger, rising to $130,000 within a week
