June 13th Trading Strategy

Yesterday, Bitcoin broke below the 20-day line at 106,299, reaching a low around 100,300, and ultimately chose to pull back down. This indicates that the rise to 110,000 in the previous days was a false signal. Currently, a double top pattern has formed on the daily chart.

Now we have had a 3-day pullback on the daily chart, which is clearly not enough time for a full retracement, and the trend is still downward. From both the 4-hour and daily perspectives, it is expected that there will be a weak rebound at the 100,000 level. For conservative investors, not participating and waiting is a good option. Of course, for aggressive investors, properly setting a stop loss at 99,000 and betting on a rebound is also feasible, but the position size should not be too large. If you want to be safer, just wait for the pullback to settle before entering the market.

Ultimately breaking below the 20-day line, the daily structure is still in a pullback. So what level will be the final pullback level? From the weekly chart, the 20-week line is around 94,000, which will provide strong support. This pullback must at least break below the 100,000 level. If it goes deeper, it could be around 94,000. If the pullback is shallower, it might be around 96,000. At that time, attention should be paid to indicators such as a 4-hour MACD golden cross and K-line stabilization to enter the market for a low buy in hopes of a rebound.

Regardless, this pullback will ultimately create space for a significant rebound in the second half of the year, and we will reassess then.

Summary:

1. Bitcoin is currently in a pullback, with an expected weak rebound at the 100,000 level. The rebound expectation should not be too high, around 3,000 points is about right. Being conservative is suitable for waiting.

2. The target for this round of pullback is to break below the 100,000 level, approximately between 95,000 and 97,000.