#TrumpTariffs

## ⚖️ Comprehensive Analysis of Trump's 2025 Tariffs: Economic, Legal, and Global Impacts

### 📊 1. **Scale and Scope of Tariffs**

- **Universal Baseline Tariff**: A 10% minimum tariff on nearly all U.S. imports ("Liberation Day" tariffs), effective April 5, 2025, supplemented by higher country-specific rates (e.g., 145% on China, 25% on Canada/Mexico initially) .

- **Coverage**: Affects **71% of U.S. goods imports** ($2.3 trillion), the highest average tariff rate (27%) since the 1930s. Recent court rulings reduced this to 15.1% by June 2025, still triple the pre-2025 rate of 2.5% .

- **Legal Challenges**: The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled the "fentanyl" and "reciprocal" tariffs unconstitutional in May 2025, citing overreach of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Appeals are pending, creating policy uncertainty .

### 💸 2. **Economic Impacts**

- **GDP and Growth**:

- **Long-Term Contraction**: Penn Wharton models project a **6% reduction in long-run GDP** and **5% lower wages** under current tariffs, twice the damage of a revenue-equivalent corporate tax hike .

- **Short-Term Slowdown**: J.P. Morgan forecasts a **0.7–1% global GDP reduction**, with U.S. growth downgrades and heightened recession risks .

- **Household Costs**:

- **Annual Burden**: $1,445 per household in 2026 if tariffs are upheld, dropping to $406 if courts block IEEPA tariffs .

- **Lifetime Losses**: Middle-income households face **$22,000 lifetime income reduction** due to lower wages and consumption .

- **Inflation**: Early data shows muted effects (May 2024 CPI: +2.4% YoY), but targeted spikes exist (e.g., **appliances +4.3%, toys +2.2%**). Analysts warn full impacts will materialize by late 2025 as pre-tariff inventories deplete .

*Table: Key Economic Projections of Trump's Tariffs*

| **Metric** | **With IEEPA Tariffs** | **Without IEEPA Tariffs** |

|--------------------------|------------------------|---------------------------|

| **Avg. Effective Tariff** | 16.1% |