At the XRP APEX 2025 conference in Singapore, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse declared that XRP Ledger (XRPL) could seize 14% of SWIFT’s global liquidity volume within five years
⚙️ Liquidity vs. Messaging: The Core Argument
Garlinghouse emphasized that SWIFT's system isn’t just messaging—it also controls liquidity. He argued its true battleground is liquidity, the capacity to transfer monetary value—not merely instructions. XRP, with on-demand liquidity and rapid settlement, could fulfill that role more efficiently
“SWIFT today has two components—messaging and liquidity…Liquidity is owned by banks. I think less about the messaging and more about liquidity. If you’re driving all the liquidity, it is good for XRP… so I’ll say five years, 14%.”
📉 Speed & Cost: XRP’s Competitive Edge
Settlement Time: XRPL settles transactions in 3–5 seconds, compared to SWIFT’s 1–5-day timeframe
Transaction Fees: XRP transactions cost only a few fractions of a cent, in stark contrast to SWIFT’s $20–$50 per payment
🔍 Realism & Obstacles Ahead
SWIFT's Entrenchment
SWIFT connects over 11,000 institutions and processes tens of millions of messages daily—making displacement a formidable challenge
Regulatory & Legal Uncertainties
XRP’s legal status in the U.S. remains contentious. Although the SEC case has eased recently, ongoing litigation—like an appeal due June 16—could delay adoption
XRPL Network Activity Trends
Some metrics show a sharp drop in XRPL’s active users—about a 90% decline in 2025—though this may reflect cyclical usage, not infrastructural weakness
📈 Strategic Advantages & Ecosystem Development
Growing RippleNet Adoption: Hundreds of banks, including MoneyGram, SBI, Santander, now use RippleNet, though actual ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) adoption is still limited
Tokenization & Ecosystem Expansion: Ripple’s CTO and C‑suite executives envision XRPL underpinning hundreds of billions in tokenized assets, and they've announced an EVM-compatible sidechain for real-world assets
Future SWIFT Interoperability: SWIFT’s upcoming ISO 20022 standard (November 2025) eases integration with blockchain platforms, creating a potential runway for XRP compatibility
🧭 Final Analysis: Realistic Game‑Changer or Aspirational Vision?
Garlinghouse’s 14% projection is ambitious but grounded in XRP’s clear tech advantages—settlement speed, ultra-low cost, and focus on liquidity.
What will determine success:
Legal clarity and resolution in the U.S.
Deeper institutional adoption of On-Demand Liquidity
Smooth integration with SWIFT or parallel financial systems
Robust upgrades to XRPL, including scalability and asset tokenization
Even if XRP doesn’t hit 14%, the movement of even a small fraction of SWIFT’s volume onto XRPL would be transformative—validating blockchain-driven liquidity as a viable financial backbone.
#xrp #CryptoCharts101 #Ripple #BradGarlinghouse #CryptoRevolution
