XRP has slid above the downward trendline that has thwarted every bullish move since February, however, according to independent market technician CasiTrades, derivative positioning suggests that a clear breakout could still end in a shakeout. The four-hour Binance chart shows the token fluctuating around $2.32, slightly above the upper boundary of the wedge, but just a heartbeat away from giving up that gain if the leverage decreases.

Is XRP About to Collapse?

Casi frames the setup in terms of Elliott waves, maintaining that the bullish wave from January to June completed a wave (1) at around $2.70 and then corrected to $2.02 at the Fibonacci extension level of 1.236, thereby outlining wave (2) against the wedge bottom. The technical expert argues that a new push above the resistance level could mark the onset of wave (3), although the funding momentum obscures that bullish signal. She wrote on X that "We are just a few days away from the peak of XRP's macro consolidation process and the price is hovering above support, while funding quietly increases." "It’s a dangerous combination."

The eight-hour funding rate has reached 0.01 percent. Casi emphasizes that if it extends to 0.02 percent without a decisive price advance, algorithms will hunt for the liquidity pool below $2.25. "As of this morning, the funding rate is rising to 0.01%/8 hours without any significant breakout effort," she explains.

“If we start to reach 0.02% or higher without any movement, that signals a high likelihood of a liquidity sweep down below.” The technical expert warns that such a sell-off would pull XRP through the restored breakout level, exposing $2.01, $1.90, and possibly $1.55. “That brings $2.01, $1.90, and even $1.55 into play if $2.25 doesn't hold,” she warns, adding that the capitulation itself “is likely to generate the exact momentum needed for a strong breakout of wave 3.”

The momentum context remains ambiguous. The fourteen-period RSI on the same chart hovers around 62.5 but registers lower highs while prices gradually rise, implying bearish divergence often accompanying spikes in volatility. However, the break above the black trendline cannot be overlooked: if sellers do not quickly reclaim that line, Casi's forecast for wave (3) will target $3.77 through the classic external Fibonacci extension of 1.618, with even larger target levels above $4.40 by the end of this summer.

Casi bluntly summarizes this moment: “Volatility is almost unavoidable. Whether it’s a final downturn or a significant breakout, the next move could shape the rest of the summer.”

Therefore, traders face a binary path. Either the increased funding source drives liquidity down to $1.55 before pushing XRP higher, or the token consolidates above $2.25 and turns the new breakout into a springboard towards $2.69, with a barrier near $3.04 and ultimately a wave target of $3.77 (3).