When game promises turn into air.
The token has become the last stick in a game of musical chairs.
Woke up today, and the circle exploded—
HMSTR plummeted 19% in a single day, hitting a historic low of $0.001039, behind this 'Hamster Great Escape' is a dual strangulation of news and technical analysis. Let me clarify this in plain language!
News:
Three 'sickles' have shattered market confidence.
Constantly delaying, the second season 'dove into the earth's core'.
The development team painted a big picture last year: to launch the second season game by the end of October, introducing new gameplay like hamsters opening studios. What happened? Players didn't even see a shadow, and the official only released a vague teaser without mentioning a schedule. This kind of 'wolf is coming' operation directly ignited a trust crisis—monthly active users plummeted from 100 million to 44 million, players voted with their feet.
Airdrops turned into 'air strikes', 60 billion tokens dumped.
The project party is madly spraying tokens to attract users: 60 billion HMSTR tokens (60% of the total) entered the market through airdrops. Early players received tokens worth less than $10, humorously dubbed 'dust rewards'. Retail investors received tokens and immediately sold them, causing selling pressure to flood like a broken dam. Worse still, the project has no token destruction mechanism, and inflation pressure continues.
The competition within the sector is intense, Telegram games have collectively stalled.
The entire Ton ecosystem game is in a slump: competitor Catizen (CATI) down 71%, Notcoin (NOT) down 78%. Meanwhile, HMSTR's user retention rate has plummeted—active users in Q1 2025 fell below 1 million, losing over 96% from the peak. Without player support, the 'gold farming game' is just a house of cards.
Technical analysis:
The downward trend has formed a death spiral.
K-line ghost stories: there is no lowest, only lower.
HMSTR has been in a continuous decline since its peak of $0.0072 last September, accumulating a drop of over 67%, and recently showing a 'downward channel': highs continue to decline, unable to hold even the $0.0022 resistance. On June 12, it dropped to a low of $0.001244, with liquidity nearly exhausted.
Volume reveals the truth: the big players have already exited.
On the day of the crash, the trading volume was only $20.89 million, less than 1/103 of the peak period. The shrinking volume indicates that the buyers have disappeared; a few sell orders can smash the floor price. Even more heartbreaking is that institutions had already cashed out at high levels in January—for example, DWF Labs withdrew $650,000 in a single day, leaving retail investors holding the bag.
Technical indicators have all 'collapsed'.
The weekly MACD dead cross is expanding, and RSI has dropped to 23 (severely oversold but no rebound). Fibonacci retracement shows that if the $0.0012 level is breached, the next target will be $0.000865 (another halving!).
Is HMSTR really hopeless? Not necessarily! An entry point has emerged—the second airdrop is scheduled for summer 2025, and the team holds 15 billion tokens ready to stimulate the second quarter. For those looking to catch a reversal opportunity.
