#TrumpTariffs Table of Contents

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Includes doubling of Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs from 25 percent to 50 percent.

Adds to the timeline the injunction issued by the US Court of International Trade that declared the IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional and shows the economic, revenue, and distributional impacts if the decision is upheld.

Includes new chart showing daily deposits of tariff and certain excise tax payments in calendar year 2025 compared to calendar year 2024.

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President Trump's Imposed and Threatened Tariffs: Topline Preliminary Estimates

10-Year Conventional Revenue, 2025-2034 (Billions)$2028.53Gross Domestic Product (GDP)−0.8%Capital Stock−0.6%Pre-Tax Wages0.0%Hours Worked Converted to Full-Time Equivalent Jobs-713,000

Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, February 2025.

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Key Findings

President Trump has threatened to impose International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China related to fentanyl; national security tariffs on autos, auto parts, steel, and aluminum from all countries; and IEEPA tariffs on all countries related to an economic national emergency at a baseline rate of 10 percent with scheduled increases for more than 50 trading partners later in 2025. The US Court of International Trade ruled in May 2025 that the IEEPA tariffs are illegal.

Under all the imposed tariffs, the weighted average applied tariff rate on all imports would rise to 16.1 percent, and the average effective tariff rate, reflecting how much tariff revenue the new tariffs would raise after incorporating behavioral responses, would rise to 12.4 percent under the current tariffs—the highest average rate since 1941. However, if the IEEPA tariffs are permanently enjoined, the applied tariff rate would rise by a smaller amount, to 6.2 percent, and the effective tariff rate to 4.7 percent, the highest since 1973.

Altogether, Trump’s imposed tariffs would raise $2.0 trillion in revenue over the next decade on a conventional basis ($1.4 trillion on a dynamic basis) and reduce US GDP by 0.8 percent, all before foreign retaliation. However, if the IEEPA tariffs are permanently enjoined, it would reduce the total revenue raised by Trump’s tariffs by $1.4 trillion to $603 billion over 10 years and reduce the negative GDP effect to 0.2 percent.

In total, the imposed tariffs would reduce market income by 1.1 percent in 2026 (0.9 percent from the IEEPA tariffs and 0.3 percent from the other tariffs, totals don’t sum due to rounding) and amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,183 in 2025 and $1,445 in 2026. However, if the IEEPA tariffs are permanently enjoined, the tax increases would be smaller at $303 in 2025 and $406 in 2026. Our estimates of reductions in market income understate the totality of effects Americans will face, as they exclude the loss of choice and higher prices for substitute goods.

As of April 4, China, Canada, and the European Union have announced or imposed retaliatory tariffs altogether affecting $330 billion of US exports. Imposed and threatened retaliation as of April 10 will reduce US GDP by another 0.2 percent and 10-year revenue by $132 billion on a dynamic basis.

In 2025, Trump’s imposed and scheduled tariffs will increase federal tax revenues by $156.4 billion, or 0.51 percent of GDP, making the tariffs the largest tax hike since 1993. The tariffs are larger than the tax increases enacted under President Barack Obama and President Geroge H.W. Bush. If the IEEPA tariffs are permanently enjoined, federal tax revenues would rise by $40.0 billion in 2025, or 0.13 percent of GDP, making the tariffs fall outside of the top 20 tax increases since 1940.

The first Trump administration-imposed tariffs on thousands of products valued at approximately $380 billion in 2018 and 2019, affecting approximately 15 percent of US goods imports.

The second Trump administration tariffs threaten all United States imports excluding a few categories: USMCA trade (valued at $405 billion of imports in 2024) and certain energy-related and other imports under the April 2 tariffs (valued at $644 billion of imports in 2024, or $459 billion excluding Canada and Mexico). Based on 2024 import values, the tariffs affect approximately $2.3 trillion of US goods imports, or 71 percent of US goods imports. However, if the IEEPA tariffs are permanently enjoined, the remaining new tariffs would affect more than $500 billion, or 16 percent, of goods imports.