Historically, Bitcoin prices have always moved in cycles. There's what’s called a bull market (usually lasts 3 years) and a bear market (typically lasts 1 year). When the price enters a bull market, Bitcoin can increase by hundreds of percent. Likewise, during a bear market, the price can drop by more than 50%. So, what should investors do?

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#1 Timing the Market is Impossible — It's Better to Have a Realistic Mindset

According to the cycle, a bear market or price peak typically occurs 500 days after the halving, which would put the cycle peak around September 2025. As of June 2025, it's only been 400 days since the halving. So in theory, we still have about 100 more days where prices may continue to rise. However, with today’s uncertain macroeconomic conditions, it’s nearly impossible to perfectly “time the market.”

If your Bitcoin investment from 2022–2023 has already multiplied several times or by hundreds of percent, there’s nothing wrong with realizing some profits and reallocating to real-world assets. The key in the market is to take profits, not just take pictures.

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#2 For New Investors, Stick with DCA — Lump Sum is a Big No Right Now

There are two main techniques for entering the market: Lump Sum and Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). For beginners, doing a lump sum — meaning putting all your money in at once (e.g., investing IDR 100 million into Bitcoin at the current price) — is strongly discouraged.

Why avoid lump sum now? Because we're likely near a cycle peak, and your assets could end up stuck if Bitcoin drops afterward. Instead, if you’re just starting out and want to learn about crypto, apply the DCA method — buying the same amount of fiat value every week or month — with a long-term mindset (until 2030–2034).

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#3 You Must Have a Day-to-Day Mindset

From now until Bitcoin possibly enters a bear market, you need to have a daily mindset — not a long-term investment mindset for crypto assets. Focus on realizing profits once your target is hit.

A common mistake would be: investing in a meme coin like $PEPE for the long term. At the end of this cycle, $PEPE could drop 90%, turning your IDR 10 million into just IDR 1 million. Instead, if you buy $PEPE for IDR 10 million and it grows to IDR 13 million, it’s much wiser to lock in the profit than to suffer a loss later.

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#4 Learn the Potential of Two-Way Trading

With derivative instruments, you can benefit from price declines by opening short positions. In fact, many traders are most profitable during bear markets. That’s why learning two-way trading is highly recommended before the bear market arrives — so when the downturn comes, you can still profit from falling prices.