Medium to Long-term Strategy: 30% Art of Offense and Defense
Position Management Three-Dimensional Model
1. Phased Positioning Strategy:
First Position (30%): Breakthrough key resistance level
Second Position (30%): Pullback confirmation without breaking
Final Position (40%): Trend acceleration phase
(Total position not exceeding 70% of principal)
2. 2024 BTC Practical Case:
$40,000 breakthrough to build 30%
$38,500 pullback to increase 30%
$42,000 trend confirmation to add 40%
Final average price $39,800, reducing cost by 11% compared to all-in strategy
Dynamic Defense System
1. Support Level Replenishment Verification Table:
Drop Magnitude Replenishment Ratio Stop Loss Rule
5% 15% Secondary Break Stop Loss
8% 10% Rebound Reduction
12% 5% Full Withdrawal
2. Cash Flow Protection Mechanism:
Withdraw principal forcibly after 30% profit
Retain 30% USDT to cope with extreme market conditions
Annualized return >8% during bear market phase to meet standard
Golden Ratio for Profit Taking
1. Three-Stage Profit Taking Method:
First Profit Point (30%): Breakthrough previous high
Second Profit Point (30%): RSI Overbought Area
Final Profit Point (40%): Trendline Break
2. Data Comparison:
Strategy Average Return Rate Maximum Drawdown
All-in 58% 43%
Phased 82% 19%
Identifying Dealer Traps
1. Typical Inducement Techniques:
False breakthrough followed by consecutive decline
Volume reduction before breaking previous high
Large volume on the day of good news announcement
2. Counter-Harvest Tactics:
Breakthrough position increase interval >5%
Daily increase >15% do not chase
Stop trading when there is net outflow from the exchange
Black Swan Response Package:
• 10% of funds to purchase put options
• 20% of funds to deposit in lending pool
• Set -30% automatic stop loss
Based on Market Conditions:
1. Hold 40% of mainstream cryptocurrency in spot
2. 30% of funds waiting for pullback
3. 30% allocated to stablecoin financial products
Remember:
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