"SHIB Lifeline 0.0128! Whales are secretly bottom-fishing, a rebound from oversold conditions is imminent!"
Summary:
SHIB has dropped to a critical support zone, with a 1-hour RSI in the oversold region + a sudden rise in large trader long/short ratio, indicating a high probability of a short-term rebound. It is recommended to test long positions at the current price of 0.012879 with light exposure, targeting 0.0132, and setting a strict stop loss at 0.01275 (risk-reward ratio of 3.5:1). Risk point: If it breaks below 0.01275, panic selling will be triggered!
Price Status:
• Bollinger Bands: Current price 0.012879 is close to the 1-hour lower band (0.012863), with a Bollinger position of 2.03% indicating oversold conditions, suggesting a high probability of a short-term rebound.
• MA200: The current price is above the MA200 (0.012787), deviating by 0.72%, indicating a long-term bullish trend.
• Holding Cost: The current price is below the holding cost (0.012947), deviating by -0.53%, with pressure from trapped positions, a rebound requires a significant volume breakthrough.
Market Strength and Weakness:
• Trading Volume: 24-hour volume ratio is 1.15 (moderate increase), but the price has fallen by 3.64%, showing a volume-driven downward trend, with bears dominating.
• Open Interest: 1-hour open interest increased by 1.16%, but the price fell by 0.66%, with bears dominating new positions; the long/short ratio increased from 1.35 to 1.62 in 24 hours, large traders are accumulating at lower prices.
• Liquidity: Key support is in the heavily traded area of 0.0129-0.0151 (14.62% share), with resistance at 0.0173-0.0195 (16.42% share).
Key Levels:
• Support: 0.01286 (Bollinger lower band) → If broken, look down to 0.0125
• Resistance: 0.01295 (holding cost) → If broken, look to 0.0136 (Bollinger upper band)
Market Cycle Analysis
Currently in a consolidation bottoming phase: Monthly line down 18.27% shows mid-bear market characteristics, but the 1-hour RSI at 40.11 is close to oversold, indicating short-term rebound demand. Funding rate at 0.0001 (neutral) shows no extreme sentiment.
Trading Strategy
Direction: Short-term rebound speculation (light exposure long position)
• Entry: Current price 0.012879 (aggressive) or breakout at 0.01295 (conservative)
• Stop Loss: 0.01275 (0.5% below Bollinger lower band)
• Target: 0.0132 (risk-reward ratio of 3.5:1)
• Position: ≤2% exposure, exit immediately if stop loss is triggered
Risk Warning:
• If it falls below 0.01275 or if the net flow of contracts continues to be negative (e.g., 8-hour net flow -78M), it may accelerate downward to 0.012.
• Avoid low liquidity periods (e.g., Asian early trading), pay attention to the funding trends at the US stock market open.
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