Yesterday I predicted that [Bitcoin would pull back to the Elliott angle line 1/4 near 109200, Ethereum would pull back to 2758, and predicted a big surge before and after the CPI data at 20:30]—all of these have been realized! How can it be so precise?
Yesterday, June 11, many people kept asking, 'Where is your peak?' Indeed, since June 6, I predicted that Bitcoin and Ethereum would peak on June 11-12. But at this moment, I am laughing. Today is only June 12? The international time zone's June 12 (8:00 on June 13 in Shanghai time) has not even closed yet! Why the rush? Can we wait until after June 12 to criticize? Are you ok?
The following analysis is from the content analyzed around 22:20 on June 11th. I first shared it in xxx. By the time you see it, it will already be 7:00 on June 12th. No one reads posts at night, so scheduling them for the morning will allow more people to see them. Additionally, posting too frequently in one day can lead to restrictions, so future posts will be scheduled. For real-time updates, please check xxx.
In xxx, during this period, I analyze Bitcoin and Ethereum in real-time more than 3-4 times every day to ensure that on important peak days, I can quickly obtain the timing and position of the peak!
The time for the highest point of the rebound is on June 12 (a day I have been emphasizing), at the latest on June 14 (an important turning point for the Elliott Box, with the intersection of the Elliott angle line and the Elliott Box on June 14 at 113594), June 17 (an important turning point for the Elliott time series). Ultimately, the day that determines the peak day of the rebound will be the day when the final result of the China-US negotiations is announced! Which specific day it is, everyone should pay close attention to the news! News can change the short-term trend.
Elliott Angle line and Elliott Box intersection see the chart below:
Elliott Wave time series see the chart below:
The analysis of Bitcoin is as follows:
(1) The prediction on June 5 that the rebound from June 11 to June 12 would reach near the daily Bollinger Band upper track has already been realized.
(2) On June 8, I indicated that the rebound from June 11 to June 12 would reach near the daily Bollinger Band upper track 109097-109599-110211, and in extreme cases, it could reach 111434.25, which has already been achieved.
(3) On June 11 at noon, I predicted that it would pull back to near the Elliott angle line 1/4, with a minimum of 109008 already realized!
Next, there are two most likely movements:
(1) Cannot exceed the new high of 110530.17, the rising magnitude is below the purple dashed line, the rebound starting from 100372 has completely ended. The probability of this scenario is decreasing.
(2) Being lifted by Ethereum, evolving into a double sawtooth corrective wave following Ethereum’s trend, can exceed the new high of 110530.17. The probability of this scenario is increasing. If the final result of the China-US negotiations is favorable, this scenario will be basically secure.
If the 109008 from the evening of June 11 is the bottom, then the ultimate rebound target on June 12 is at 111614.72, 112229.71, 113178.26-113594 (the intersection of Elliott Angle line and Elliott Box is on June 14 at 113594)-114220. As shown in the chart, the height of the rebound will be affected by the outcome of the final negotiations between China and the United States, as news-driven factors are also a very important variable in Elliott theory; the better the news, the higher the rebound, and the worse the news, the lower the rebound. Therefore, special attention should be paid to this important news regarding the final negotiations between China and the United States. The rebound will run along the new Elliott 1/1 angle line and Elliott 1/2 angle line; if it effectively breaks below the Elliott 1/1 angle line, it should be considered whether 109008 is the bottom or if the pullback has completely ended.
If 109200 is not the bottom, then the rebound high point will need to be recalculated.
(3) Important support only looks at the 6-hour BBI and 4-hour BBI, currently at 108558-109091.
The key short-term support looks at the 30-minute BBI, currently at 109558 (let's see if it can continue to hold and continue to turn upwards).
Only with an effective break below the 6-hour BBI and 4-hour BBI + a 4-hour MACD death cross can it ultimately confirm a peak (but the lag will be significant).
Currently, the 4-hour MACD is close to a death cross, and there is still a significant divergence here. If a sustained rise cannot continue, the probability that the pullback has completely ended will increase. The key support for the 4-hour trend combination indicator is 106749, and if it effectively breaks below, it can ultimately announce a peak.
The analysis of Ethereum is as follows:
(1) The analysis of Ethereum on June 11 [Ethereum will at least fall to 2771, 2767.65-2758-2747-2726, and even 2700 is possible; there will be a rebound before the CPI data at 20:30], with a minimum of 2754 that has been perfectly realized! 20:30 was also the final rebound!
(2) Ethereum breaks out; this process is exactly the same as Ethereum's movement from January 3 to January 7. Ethereum's breakout, according to the rules, will continue to rise for 2-3 days, which further strengthens my expectation of a peak rebound on June 12!
(3) Ethereum has rebounded from 2381.49 on June 6, conforming to the WXY corrective wave.
(4) The rebound starting on June 9 is the Y-wave rebound, and its internal structure is a single sawtooth corrective wave.
Currently, it is already in the Y-C wave (provided it does not break below 2754).
If Ethereum's internal structure is only a single sawtooth corrective wave, then theoretically, Ethereum on June 12 should aim for 2932.57-2974.71-3003, and even 3039.7-3111.13 is possible! Among them, 2995-2998 is a significant psychological barrier, particularly pay attention to 2974.71-2995-2998! The final result of the China-US negotiations is about to be announced, and it can only rebound properly after the good news comes out.
(5) If Ethereum's internal structure evolves into a double or even triple sawtooth corrective wave, the rebound will be longer and higher. Although the probability of this scenario is not very high, it will only occur when Bitcoin B breaks out to a new high and reaches the upper Bollinger Band on the monthly line. However, if the 4-hour MACD does not death cross and does not effectively break below the 4-hour BBI and 6-hour BBI, we cannot easily say that it has peaked.
