ONDO approaches the upper Bollinger Band! Beware of the risk of pullback, seize the opportunity to short, and hidden crises in the rising FOMO sentiment!

The current price of ONDO is 0.9048 USDT, up 3% in 24 hours, with a trading volume increase of 47.6%. However, the Bollinger Band position at 99.5% indicates overbought conditions, and the RSI is 59.2, slightly strong. Recommended to short: entry at 0.9050, stop loss at 0.9100, target at 0.8780, risk-reward ratio of 5.4. Opportunities lie in selling pressure at high levels and liquidity sell zones, but risks include positive news (such as a surge in Fortune 500 stablecoin demand) pushing prices higher or breaking stop losses.

Technical Analysis

1. Price Status: Bollinger Band position at 99.5% (upper band at 0.9049) indicates overbought risk; MA200 deviation at 7.59% (current price above 0.8409) shows strength but at a high level; holding cost deviation at 5.89% (current price above 0.8544), with most holders in profit, which may trigger selling pressure.

2. Market Strength: trading volume ratio at 1.47 times, with increased activity, but price increases diverge from RSI, suggesting weakening momentum; open interest changes show a slight increase in bulls (long-short ratio rises to 2.76), but funding rate at 0.00005% is slightly positive, indicating cautious smart money; news like “surge in Fortune 500 stablecoin demand” is positive, but prices have already risen, possibly priced in.

3. Key Levels: support at 0.8783 (Bollinger Band lower band), resistance at 0.9049 (upper band) and 1.0 (selling zone at 285k USDT); buy-sell pressure ratio at 1.61x (more buy orders), but nearby sell orders are high (-28.5k), with a liquidity gap in the 1.0-1.5 range (selling pressure accumulates), making price prone to decline.

Market Cycle Analysis

Currently in the mid-phase of a bull market, with a 7-day increase of 8.86% indicating strength, but the high Bollinger Band and RSI warn of top risks, potentially shifting to consolidation or pullback.

Trading Strategy

• Entry Point: 0.9050 (near current price, aggressive).

• Stop Loss Point: 0.9100 (above the upper band, to prevent breakout).

• Target Level: 0.8780 (lower band support).

• Risk-Reward Ratio: 5.4 (calculated based on Short formula).

Risk Warning

• Market Risk: positive news (such as stablecoin demand) pushing prices higher; liquidity sell zone at 1.0 may attract upward movement; macro events (such as FTX repayment issues).

• Conditions for Strategy Failure: price breaking above 0.9100 or stabilizing above 0.9050 need reassessment; key support at 0.8780 breaking is ineffective.

• Operational Notes: single position risk ≤ 2% of total funds; avoid low liquidity periods (such as Asian night)

$ONDO