5.6 million votes in support! Is the 'American' party really coming?
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Prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of Musk forming a party in 2025 has soared from 7% at the beginning of the month to 17%, with bets exceeding $400 million.
Musk conducted a poll on platform X, with 5.6 million participants, and 80% support for the establishment of a new centrist political party.
Musk announced the new party called the 'American Party', and emotionally stated, 'This is the voice of the people.'
Why is it suddenly so popular?
A fallout with Trump: The two have been at odds over tax policies, with Trump threatening to cancel Tesla's government contracts, and Musk revealing damaging information about Trump.
Commercial interests affected: Tesla's stock price plummeted by 14% in one day, with a market value evaporation of $150 billion.
Platform advantages: The X social platform + Polymarket prediction market are creating a media frenzy around this.
Can it succeed?
Favorable conditions:
Wealthy and willful: The world's richest person, last year alone spent $300 million on elections.
Fan base: Over 200 million followers on platform X, can directly mobilize supporters.
Grassroots support: American centrists are fed up with the fierce battles between the two parties.
Real challenges:
The American electoral system is very unfriendly to third parties, and similar historical attempts have failed.
Building a party is not as simple as tweeting; it requires a large organizational structure and grassroots strength.
Musk has a talent for offending people, having angered both the left and right factions.
Potential impacts
Politics: It may split the Republican vote, while Democrats may secretly rejoice.
Business: Tesla may accelerate the transfer of production capacity to China.
Hedge market: The prediction market has become a political weather vane, representing a new way of integrating Web3 and politics.
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