TODAY AT 8:30 AM ET
Here is an update on CPI data, focusing on recent releases and expectations:
U.S. CPI Data (May 2025):
* Release date: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May 2025 on Wednesday, June 11, 2025, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
* Expectations: Ahead of the release, the average estimate for the year-on-year CPI increase for May 2025 was 2.5%. This would be the first increase compared to the previous month since January 2025.
* For core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy), the average estimate was 2.9% year-on-year.
* On a monthly basis, a 0.2% increase in CPI and a 0.3% increase in core CPI were anticipated.
* Tariff impact: It was expected that the inflation figures for May could reflect the initial effects of new tariffs, which may contribute to price increases. This data is crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, especially regarding potential interest rate cuts.
* April 2025 data (previous): Year-on-year CPI for April 2025 saw an increase of 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021 and below forecasts. The 'All Items Less Food and Energy' index rose by 2.8%.
Global inflation trends (June 2025):
* Moderate, but with deviations: Global inflation is likely to remain moderate throughout 2025. According to the United Nations' World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) update in June 2025, global inflation is expected to drop from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025.
* Regional disparities: This overall trend masks various regional dynamics:
* Developed economies: Inflation in developed economies is projected to average 2.8% in 2025, slightly above 2024, with new upward pressure risks in the U.S. due to tariffs.
* Developing economies: Inflation in developing economies is expected to fall to 4.7%, although a significant portion will still experience rates above pre-pandemic levels.
* Eurozone: The Eurozone is facing deflationary forces, with inflation already dropping to 1.9% in May (Eurostat flash estimate), reflecting lower energy prices, weak demand, and potentially tariffs causing trade to shift away from the U.S.
* Trade tensions and uncertainty: The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report (June 2025) highlights that rising trade tensions and policy uncertainty are bringing global growth to its slowest pace since 2008 (just out of global recession). These factors are also contributing to upward pressure on global inflation, which remains above pre-pandemic levels with an expected average of 2.9% in 2025 (World Bank).
* OECD data: OECD headline inflation remained stable at 4.2% year-on-year in April 2025.
Summary: The U.S. CPI data for May 2025, released today, is a crucial part of understanding the current inflation environment and its potential impacts on monetary policy decisions. Globally, inflation is generally moderate but affected by ongoing trade tensions and significant regional variations.
