The Art of Game at Price High Points: Should We Be Greedy or Fearful?

Key Issues Breakdown

1. Is the current high point sustainable?

Technical Aspect: Are there signs of a top divergence or overbought conditions?

Financial Aspect: Are large buy orders sustained? What is the net inflow in exchanges?

Emotional Aspect: Is the market FOMO sentiment overheated? Is there a surge in social media discussions?

2. Analysis of Possible Price Recovery

Historical Patterns: Is this cryptocurrency prone to "double tops"?

Sector Rotation: Are other tokens in the same category still rising?

Catalysts: Are there any major positive developments in the next 1-2 weeks, such as mainnet launches or institutional participation?

Practical Strategy Suggestions

Conservative (Risk-Averse)

Immediate Action:

Close 50% to lock in profits

Set a trailing stop for the remaining position (e.g., auto-sell if there's a 5% pullback)

Aggressive (Trend Traders)

Two Options:

1. Breakout Strategy: If the price stabilizes above previous highs with volume, increase position by 10-20%

2. Reversal Strategy: Short at the current price (suggest 2-3x leverage) with a stop loss set at previous high +3%

Smart Hedging Plan

Establish Cross-Period Positions:

Keep spot positions unchanged

Simultaneously open equivalent quarterly contract short positions (to hedge systematic risk)

Will History Repeat Itself? Key Data References

After BTC Halving in 2020

First High Pullback Magnitude: 23%

Time Taken to Break Previous High: 18 days

After ETH Broke Previous High in 2021

Maximum Pullback: 34%

Number of New Highs: 3 times with stepwise increases

Ultimate Decision Tree

Is any of the following situations occurring?

Yes → Immediate Reduction of Position

Whale Address Movements on Exchanges

4-Hour RSI > 85

Derivatives Funding Rate > 0.1%

No → Hold and Observe

Increase in On-Chain Active Addresses → Wait for Price Recovery

Volume Continues to Shrink → Gradually Take Profits

Wall Street Saying: "Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, mature in optimism, and die in euphoria.

At this moment, the most dangerous thing is neither going long nor going short

but replacing trading discipline with a gambling mentality.

If you truly want to survive long-term in the crypto space, relying solely on technology is far from enough.

What you need is system, discipline, and counter-intuitive training!

Follow Buddha! Are you ready?

Focus on #比特币走势观察 #Uniswp #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥