1. Redefining the Essence of the Market: The Survival Dilemma of Retail Investors
1. Market Reality: Data shows that in 2023, the average loss rate for retail investors in the cryptocurrency market reached 76%, with only 9% achieving profits.
2. Survivor Bias: Behind every 100 "get rich quick" stories, there are 9999 silent loss accounts.
3. Cognitive Revolution: The fundamental difference between successful traders and ordinary retail investors lies in risk control ability, not profit-making ability.
2. The Golden Rules of Loss Control
1. Three Principles of Position Management:
No single trade should exceed 2% of total capital.
No more than 3 positions held at once.
Do not average down on losing trades.
2. Dynamic Stop-Loss Strategy:
Basic Stop-Loss: 3-5% of entry price.
Time Stop-Loss: Exit immediately if there is no profit after holding for 48 hours.
Emotional Stop-Loss: Force liquidation when the thought of "let's wait a bit longer" arises.
3. Capital Firewall Settings:
Withdraw principal when profits exceed 20%.
Stop trading for a week if account drawdown reaches 10%.
Keep at least 30% in stablecoins as strategic reserves.
3. The Correct Way to Approach Rolling Position Strategy
1. Applicable Conditions:
Only use in a clear bull market.
Only suitable for mainstream coins like BTC/ETH.
Must be accompanied by strict stop-loss discipline.
2. Practical Operation Framework:
Initial position should not exceed 5%.
Increase position by 1% for every 20% rise.
Terminate strategy immediately upon a 10% drawdown.
3. Historical Case Review:
Rolling position opportunities from 3800 to 60000 for BTC in 2020.
Swing trading from 8 to 200 for SOL in 2024.
Key Lesson: The 2022 LUNA rolling position disaster.
4. The Path from Survival to Development
1. Profit Reinvestment Principles:
50% of profits to be locked out.
30% for stable allocation.
20% for risky speculation.
2. Cycle Response Strategies:
Bull Market: Trend following + moderate rolling positions.
Bear Market: Dollar-cost averaging + arbitrage trading.
Sideways Market: Grid + swing trading combination.
6. Recommendations for 2025
1. Current Stage Judgment: Mid-bull market, increasing volatility.
2. Allocation Recommendations:
40% mainstream coins (BTC/ETH).
30% stablecoins (waiting for opportunities).
20% quality altcoins (SOL, etc.).
10% cash reserves.
3. Risk Warnings:
Beware of changes in regulatory policies.
Pay attention to exchange reserves.
Monitor large on-chain transfers.
Advice:
The cruelest fairness in the cryptocurrency market is that it gives everyone the opportunity to get rich, but ultimately rewards only those who understand how to control risk.
Like + Follow! Guidance from Mr. Huo for wealth in the cryptocurrency market!
In the cryptocurrency market, following the right leader is more important than technical skills!
