Rebound Phase Trading Strategy**
### **1. Spot Position Building in Stages**
- **Pyramid Averaging Method**:
- First position 10% (confirm trend reversal) → Add 20% on each bounce at support → Total position not exceeding 50%.
- Suitable assets: BTC, ETH, and other mainstream currencies.
- **Selecting Oversold Altcoins**:
- Criteria: Top 100 by market cap, fundamentals not deteriorating (e.g., stable TVL), weekly decline >70%.
- Example: MATIC rebounded from $0.3 to $1.5 in January 2023.
### **2. Contract Trading Strategies**
- **Low Leverage Longs** (3x-5x):
- Entry Point: Breakthrough of the downtrend line or EMA20 moving average.
- Stop Loss: 3%-5% below the previous low.
- **Hedging Strategy**:
- Go long on strong coins (such as BTC), while shorting weak coins (like some small-cap altcoins).
### **3. Short-term Swing Trading**
- **Quick Rebound Rule**:
- “Don’t catch the bottom on a sharp drop, wait for consolidation before entering” — Wait for price stabilization before participating.
- Profit Target: Fibonacci 38.2% or 50% retracement level.
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## **Three, Risk Management Key Points**
### **1. Beware of False Rebounds**
- **“Dead Cat Bounce” in Bear Markets**:
- Characteristics: Rebound without volume, short duration (<3 days), unable to break key resistance.
- Case: Multiple false rebounds of LUNA after the crash in May 2022.
### **2. Stop Loss Discipline**
- **Spot**: If the price falls below the previous low, stop loss or reduce position.
- **Contracts**: Forced stop loss in leveraged trading (e.g., -8% from opening price).
### **3. Position Control**
- **Single Asset Position ≤ 20%**, to avoid excessive concentration risk.
- **Stablecoin Reserve ≥ 30%**, to cope with secondary dips.
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## **Four, Current Market Rebound Opportunities (Updated 2024)**
### **1. Favorable Macroeconomic Environment**
- **Federal Reserve Pauses Interest Rate Hikes**: Liquidity pressure eases, benefiting risk assets.
- **Bitcoin Halving Expectation** (April 2024): Historically tends to rise in the first 6 months.
### **2. Key Assets to Watch**
- **BTC/ETH**: Rebound barometer, need to break through key resistance at $30,000/$2,000.
- **Layer 2 Sector**: OP, ARB, etc., benefit from Ethereum upgrade narrative.
- **AI + Crypto Projects**: Such as FET, AGIX, etc.