News analysis: Negative news piles up, making it hard for Dogecoin to rise.
Bitcoin drags down + regulatory sword: Affected by Moody's downgrade of the US rating, Bitcoin plummeted 4.5% in a single day to $102,000, and DOGE, as a 'follower', directly suffered. Recently, a department under Musk is under investigation for abusing AI to analyze government data, increasing regulatory risks, leading institutional funds to withdraw for safety, and Dogecoin has become a 'pawn'.
ETF expectation cools: Although the probability of DOGE ETF approval once rose to 74%, the attitude of the new SEC chairman is ambiguous, and the inherent flaws of Dogecoin—'no value support + high inflation'—have been pointed out by institutions, significantly dampening expectations for fund inflows.
Whale's secret maneuver: Although the blockchain shows whales buying 1 billion DOGE in 30 days, the number of open futures contracts has surged by 63%, suspected to be major players unloading during the rebound, making it easy for retail investors to get trapped.
Technical analysis: Death cross resonance, the downtrend channel is locked.
K-line pattern: The 4-hour chart has recorded consecutive bearish candles, with the 0.19 level repeatedly being hit. The rebound high has continuously dropped from 0.25, forming a typical 'descending flag' structure, with clear control from the bears.
Indicator deterioration: After the MACD death cross, green bars have continued to increase, the Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, and the price is firmly suppressed by the middle line at 0.194. Although the KDJ is oversold, the rebound is weak, indicating that the downward momentum has not been fully released.
Key level warning: The support range of 0.185-0.195 has been tested three times. If it breaks down with volume, it may rush directly to the previous low of 0.167, leaving no decent defense below.
Operation summary: Better to miss out than to get hurt; wait for right-side signals.
Holders:
0.185 is the last defense line; if broken, stop loss must be executed! If it rebounds to 0.20-0.21 (Bollinger middle line + Fibonacci 23.6%), you can reduce your position.
Wait-and-see: Dogecoin is now like a 'mouse in a bellows'—suffering from both sides. It’s better to wait for Bitcoin to stabilize and for Dogecoin to break through 0.21 with volume before entering.
Short sellers: Aggressive traders can try shorting near 0.195 with light positions, stop loss at 0.205, target 0.17.
Whales love to kill 'faithful holders'. When the whole network shouts to buy the dip, the sharp drop has just begun! Follow me, and I'll guide you to the killer opportunity at the golden pit of 0.16!
