The smartest people in capital markets aren’t debating if Bitcoin wins.
They're calculating how fast Bitcoin is rewriting Gresham’s Law and how it crushes fiat.
Here's the brutal breakdown:
Gresham’s Law is NOT simply “bad money drives out good.”
That’s entry-level.
It’s a disequilibrium phenomenon triggered when legal tender laws forcibly misprice multiple monies.
When coercion fails, Thiers' Law activates: good money floods out bad.
Modern fiat systems survive only via 4 control levers:
• Legal tender statutes
• Capital controls (restricted convertibility)
• Tax obligations (forced demand for fiat)
• Psychological inertia (status quo bias)
Bitcoin systematically attacks all 4.
Bitcoin’s design optimizes the exact parameters that neutralize Gresham’s bottlenecks:
• 21M capped supply
• Self-custodial auditability (assay risk → 0)
• Global portability (export constraints → 0)
• Final settlement (counterparty risk → 0)
• Energy-anchored issuance (politically irreversible)
The critical path isn’t technological anymore... it’s psychological reflexivity.
Three behavioral biases govern adoption:
• Loss aversion
• Hyperbolic discounting
• Status quo anchoring
Ironically, the same biases that delay adoption will amplify the eventual hyperbitcoinization panic.
Empirical history shows a nonlinear adoption curve:
Phase I - Skeptical hoarding (low-velocity BTC, high-velocity fiat)
Phase II - Dual pricing emerges
Phase III - Mental unit-of-account shift (sats)
Phase IV - Fiat collapse accelerates when enforcement credibility fractures
This isn't theoretical.
Every hyperinflationary episode, Zimbabwe, Argentina, Turkey - converges on the SAME BEHAVIORAL PATTERN.
At CPI breaches >7%, velocity substitution triggers occur, driving hoarding of harder assets even under capital restrictions.
The Toulouse School model mathematically proved endogenous fiat policy abuse eventually forces rational agents into censorship-resistant assets.
As the state’s marginal revenue product of debasement declines, capital organically reallocates into crypto-native assets.
The reflexive game theory is brutal.
Each marginal corporate BTC treasury adoption:
• Adds liquidity (↑)
• Reduces volatility (↓)
• Increases network effect elasticity (β↑)
• Lowers entry friction for next adopter
The recursive flywheel compresses adoption windows geometrically.
This is why you’re seeing sovereign-scale entities (MSTR, Metaplanet, Tether’s proto-sovereign XXI) front-running nation-states.
Early institutional balance sheets will act as quasi-monetary superstructures before most governments even comprehend the threat.
The fiat system itself guarantees its own destruction:
• Debt obligations demand monetization.
• Monetization fuels real-yield erosion.
• Yield erosion drives capital flight.
• Capital flight forces further monetization.
Every feedback loop tightens Gresham’s asymmetry.
CBDCs are irrelevant.
They’re simply coercive digital overlays on the same fiat degradation curve.
No amount of programmability fixes the mathematical disequilibrium when the underlying unit is collapsing in purchasing power relative to a digitally scarce asset.
The final convergence is full-stack Bitcoinization:
• Unit of account = sats
• Store of value = Bitcoin
• Settlement rail = Lightning/Fedimint/Ark
• Fiat = legally tolerated tax coupon until collapse
Velocity differentials collapse permanently.
Timeline Model:
Corporate Seed: 5% of G20 corporate treasuries allocate to Bitcoin (Estimated window: 2025–2027)
Dual Pricing: 15% of B2B invoices are quoted in Bitcoin alongside fiat (Estimated window: 2027–2030)
Unit-of-Account Drift: More than 30% of citizens mentally price goods and services in Bitcoin/sats (Estimated window: 2030–2035)
Legal Defeat: Courts and governments quietly start indexing contracts and liabilities to Bitcoin terms, even as fiat remains the nominal legal tender (Estimated window: 2035–2040)
Hyperbitcoinization: Fiat velocity collapses; the M2 money supply to Bitcoin market cap ratio falls below 1 (Estimated window: 2040+)
Here’s the uncomfortable part:
• Fiat elites can’t reverse this cycle.
• The control levers break sequentially as confidence fractures.
• Each new stress event compresses time.
Bitcoin isn’t simply “winning”, as it’s structurally inevitable via irreversible monetary physics.
“Bad money drives out good.”
That was Gresham’s Law under coercive price pegs.
Bitcoin rewrote the law:
Good money absorbs capital faster than states can debase bad money.
You’re not watching a currency debate.
You’re witnessing the global exit ramp from fiat reality.