As of June 10, 2025, Bitcoin's price is once again approaching the critical level of $110,000, with intense market speculation. The current market situation is influenced by multiple factors, including institutional capital flows, macroeconomic policies, technical signals, and regulatory dynamics. Below are strategies for breakouts and an analysis of key factors:
I. Current Market Background and Key Breakout Points 1. Institutional capital continues to flow in
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock IBIT, Fidelity FBTC) have seen strong capital inflows recently, with a net inflow of $2.75 billion in a single week in May.
Traditional financial institutions such as JPMorgan have opened Bitcoin ETF trading channels, which may further drive institutional participation.
Breakout Signal: If ETF capital inflows continue to grow, it may push Bitcoin to break $110,000 and challenge $120,000.
2. Macro Economic and Policy Impact
Federal Reserve Policy: The probability of a rate cut in June is low (99.9% chance of maintaining the interest rate), but if the PCE inflation data exceeds expectations, it may strengthen tightening expectations, temporarily suppressing BTC.
Trump Policy: If the U.S. (National Bitcoin Reserve Act) advances, it may create demand at the level of hundreds of billions of dollars.
China-U.S. Trade Negotiations: If signals of easing are released, it may boost risk assets (including Bitcoin).
3. Key Technical Levels
Support Level: $105,000-$107,000 (recent lower boundary of the fluctuation range)
Resistance Level: $112,000 (previous high), target of $120,000-$125,000 after a breakout
Technical Indicators: The 50-day moving average crosses above the 30-day moving average forming a 'golden cross', a historically bullish signal; the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has not entered the overbought zone, still having room for upward movement.
II. Breakout Strategies and Trading Suggestions
1. Short-term Trading Strategy a. Follow long after breakout confirmation: If Bitcoin stabilizes above $112,000, consider short-term follow-up, targeting $120,000, with stop-loss set below $108,000.
Buy on dips: If it retraces to the $105,000-$107,000 support zone and stabilizes, consider building positions in batches, speculating on a second upward push.
Beware of spike trading: Policy news (such as CPI data, SEC regulatory changes) may trigger severe volatility, so position sizes should be controlled.
2. Medium to Long-term Holding Strategy a. Buy on dips: If it retraces below $100,000, view it as a long-term buying opportunity, as institutions (like MicroStrategy) are still accumulating. Pay attention to Layer 2 and ecosystem development: The adoption of the Lightning Network and Bitcoin L2 (like Stacks) may enhance BTC's practical utility and support long-term value.
3. Risk Control a. Stop-loss settings: Strict stop-loss for short-term trading (such as 5%-8%) to avoid sudden black swan events (like regulatory crackdowns).
Diversified investment: Avoid putting all funds at stake, and allocate part of the capital to ETH, SOL, and other highly correlated assets.
III. Possible Catalysts in the Future
1. Further accumulation by institutions (such as sovereign funds, corporate balance sheet allocations)
2. SEC policy shift: If there is a clear support for self-custody and on-chain finance, it may promote the growth of decentralized exchanges (DEX).
3. Technological upgrades: Such as Taproot assets and the development of the Bitcoin smart contract ecosystem, which may attract new capital.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently in a critical breakout window, and the resonance of institutional capital, policy trends, and technical aspects will determine whether it can successfully break above $112,000 and challenge $120,000. Short-term traders may wait for confirmation of the breakout before following up, while medium to long-term investors may consider buying on dips but need to be wary of high volatility risks. If the macro environment (such as an increase in rate cut expectations) aligns, Bitcoin is expected to start a new upward cycle.
