The Journey of Retail Investors in the BTC Long Cycle

Friends who have traded cryptocurrencies know that to profit, you need to buy low and sell high.

So how do you buy BTC when it falls to ten thousand and hold on until it reaches over one hundred fifty thousand in a bull market?

Some people might think it's easy—just buy and sell, right? But this seemingly simple strategy is fraught with challenges and is a constant test of human nature.

Here is a simulation of the journey of retail investors:

Doubt: Can Bitcoin really fall to ten thousand? I just can’t think of any black swan event that could push it that low?

Fear: Wow! Bitcoin has fallen to ten thousand! It can’t possibly go lower, right? A blockchain scam! Don’t buy!

Conservative: The Bitcoin I bought at ten thousand has risen to twenty thousand; I’ll sell and take my profits.

Missed Opportunity: Sold at twenty thousand waiting for a pullback, now it’s at fifty thousand. No choice, I’ll just buy back in.

Satisfaction: Bitcoin is at one hundred thousand! Feels like it should be at the peak, I’ll withdraw for now, leaving the speculative gains to you, and I’ll short it.

Greed: Bitcoin is at one hundred fifty thousand! Shorting leads to liquidation, I’ll go long; it’s definitely going to keep rising! An eternal bull market! Selling my house to invest all in! The transition between bull and bear markets happens quietly, and soon the crypto market experiences a new round of corrections; those who didn’t exit in time are stuck at the peak.

Throughout the process, Bitcoin's actual increase exceeded fifteen times, but many retail investors might only have captured a few times, or even lost their only profits by not selling at the peak in time.

The real winners are those who hardly traded at all during this time. You might want to [check the homepage] to get the latest information and trading tips in the crypto space.