The direction of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations in 2025 presents a dual possibility for Bitcoin (BTC). If the negotiations maintain a "partial easing" trend by mid-year, global market risk aversion may decrease, leading funds to flow back from high-risk assets to traditional stocks and bonds, which could put short-term pressure on BTC; however, uncertainties in technology competition (such as semiconductors and AI) and supply chain restructuring during the negotiations will still stimulate institutions to allocate BTC as a "digital safe-haven asset," supporting underlying demand.

If negotiations become tense again in the fourth quarter due to rule games (such as digital economy regulation and AI ethics), dollar liquidity fluctuations will intensify, reinforcing BTC's "non-sovereign currency" attributes—following the 2024 U.S. election, some states' attempts to regulate cryptocurrencies could form a "regulatory competition" with China's cross-border capital flow management, promoting increased trading activity of BTC in the gray area. Overall, BTC prices will be deeply tied to the "certainty premium" of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations: easing will narrow volatility, while friction will highlight its safe-haven attributes, ultimately leading to a fluctuating upward curve between "policy trial and error" and "market sentiment."