Cryptocurrency market participants are closely monitoring several U.S. economic indicators this week that may impact Bitcoin price movements. While inflation data has long dominated market sentiment, labor market figures are now emerging as a key driver for BTC's next major move.
U.S. economic indicators that cryptocurrency traders must watch this week
The following U.S. economic indicators may influence investor sentiment and drive Bitcoin volatility this week.
CPI Index
U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) data will be released on Wednesday, June 11, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). CPI measures the average change over time in the prices urban consumers pay for a basket of goods and services.
This U.S. economic indicator is a key measure of inflation, reflecting the cost of living and purchasing power of typical households. As a lagging indicator, U.S. CPI is a primary focus for targeting inflation and is tied to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% goal.
Bloomberg's survey suggests inflation may spike in May amidst tariff chaos in the U.S. Specifically, the survey shows core CPI surging to 0.3% after 0.2% in April.
BeInCrypto reports that U.S. CPI data shows inflation in the U.S. increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in April, slightly lower than the rate recorded in March. This means inflation decreased in April on a month-over-month (MoM) basis.
This U.S. economic indicator will be released on June 11. Investors and cryptocurrency traders will be watching to see if May data extends the three-month streak of monthly inflation declines to a fourth.
Bitcoin is often seen as a potential hedge against fiat currency instability. Therefore, if CPI data shows that inflation has cooled in May, signaling a more dovish stance from the Fed or easing policy, then the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes will decrease.
Such results would increase investor demand for risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially driving prices up. It is also important to note that if inflation decreases significantly, this may reduce Bitcoin's appeal as an inflation hedge, as investors may prefer traditional assets like bonds or stocks. This is particularly true considering Bitcoin's recent negative correlation with gold.
However, according to data on MarketWatch, economists predict CPI inflation will rise to 2.5% year-over-year (YoY). This would indicate a slight increase in inflation, potentially reversing the cooling trend.
Specifically, this will make the Fed cautious, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts in June or September 2025, as higher inflation signals persistent price pressures. The Fed may maintain or even consider tightening policy to curb inflation.
This will strengthen the U.S. dollar and increase Treasury bond yields, causing Bitcoin prices to drop. However, investors wary of fiat currency depreciation may shift capital into Bitcoin.
CPI showing inflation rising 2.5% annually would indicate that while inflation is rising higher, it remains below the peak of 3.1% seen earlier in 2024. This figure is still close to the Fed's 2% target, so it may not immediately signal strong policy tightening. However, it could dampen expectations for rate cuts in the near future.
Andrea Lisi of Lisi Quant Analysis said: "Despite these forecasts, I believe it is still too early to expect a meaningful increase in core CPI... I predict the earliest signals of rising inflation will appear in July."
Initial unemployment claims
BeInCrypto reports that labor market data is gradually overtaking inflation to become the next macroeconomic catalyst for Bitcoin. Initial unemployment claims, an economic indicator of the U.S. measuring the number of people filing for unemployment benefits, will be released this Thursday, June 12.
As one of the measures of economic growth, initial unemployment claims can also affect Bitcoin price volatility.
In the week ending May 31, the number of initial unemployment claims reported was 247,000, and economists currently forecast it to decrease to 242,000. This optimism comes after Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) showed the U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding the estimated 126,000.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%. Rising claims signal a weakening labor market, increasing expectations for the Fed to cut rates to stimulate the economy. This is a bullish signal for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as lower interest rates weaken the dollar and boost demand for risk assets like Bitcoin.
PPI
U.S. PPI (Producer Price Index) is another economic indicator to watch this week. This indicator measures the prices producers receive at the wholesale level. This U.S. economic indicator also helps forecast future consumer inflation and is often regarded as a leading indicator. However, it is worth noting that this indicator is not tied to the Fed's 2% target.
In April, PPI inflation rose at an annual rate of 2.4%, below the target of 2.5% and even lower than the 3.4% recorded in March. If this trend continues, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will rise in price.
"CPI on Wednesday along with PPI on Thursday will give us a very good idea of what we will see with PCE prices at the end of the month. Notably, barring any major surprises, we could see a significant acceleration in core figures this month," a popular user on X noted.
Consumer Sentiment
The consumer sentiment report on Friday is also an important U.S. economic indicator relevant to Bitcoin prices. Economists predict this macroeconomic data will reach 55.0 in June after hitting 52.2 in May.
In retrospect, the May consumer sentiment report shows that U.S. consumer sentiment is worsening. Specifically, the Consumer Sentiment Index fell 1.4 points to 52.2, the second-lowest level in the survey's history, below 2008 and the recessions of the 1980s.
The consumer sentiment index, which measures consumer confidence in the U.S., impacts Bitcoin (BTC) by reflecting optimism or pessimism about the economy, affecting risk appetite and expectations for Fed policy.
High optimistic sentiment (e.g., above 76.0, like in May 2025 at 76.0) above the 52.2 of May will signal economic strength, likely reducing the possibility of interest rate cuts and boosting the dollar, which could put downward pressure on BTC.
Conversely, low sentiment, potentially below the expected 55.0, will boost expectations for Fed easing, supporting risk assets like BTC.
These four U.S. economic indicators summarize consumer confidence and long-term inflation expectations, and may affect spending and overall economic growth.
