Current BTC Long/Short Landscape and Potential Path
The current market has a high concentration of short positions. Even if the price drops to around 104k, psychological pressure prevents most from daring to go long easily. The congestion of shorts itself poses a reversal risk. At the same time, longs, forced to enter the market out of fear of missing out, also exacerbate the risk of resistance during pullbacks.
Short-term (High probability): There is a strong incentive for a large number of short positions to be liquidated due to a "short squeeze." A rapid price surge (the target range may reach 106k-109k+) could trigger a large number of short stop-losses/liquidations, forming a "cascading effect" and significantly pushing up the price, potentially far exceeding expectations (for example, reaching near the 110k stop-loss zone).
Mid-term Turning Point: Non-farm payroll data (and other macro factors) are key catalysts. Once a large number of shorts are cleared, the market structure may reverse, combined with strong non-farm data expectations (implying a delay in interest rate cuts/tightening), which could trigger a significant correction in U.S. stocks (NASDAQ). BTC, being a risk asset, is likely to follow downwards.
Potential Pullback Target: The target for this round of decline may be in the 92k range, with the possibility of a deeper drop to around 86k.
Core Challenges:
"Knowing there will be a short squeeze but having to take the risk to enter" (fear of missing out) "Knowing the overall trend will decline but afraid of being left behind" (fear of missing the start of the pullback)
Advice: For those currently without positions, the best strategy is to wait and see. The operational risk under such high volatility expectations is extremely high. Waiting for the market to operate along the aforementioned path (or a corrected path) and for key catalysts to materialize before looking for clearer entry points may be a more prudent choice. Keep a close eye on short position data and non-farm trends.
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