#USChinaTradeTalks

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Key Takeaways from the London Talks

1. High-Level Delegations Convened

• U.S. team led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

• China was represented by Vice Premier He Lifeng .

2. Export Controls & Rare‑Earths in Focus

• Talks shifting from tariffs to strategic export controls—critical goods like rare‑earth minerals, jet engines, and advanced tech are at the center .

• The U.S. has pressed China to lift restrictions on rare‑earth exports, affecting industries from EVs to aerospace .

3. Tariff Truce Continues, Geneva Deal Extended

• These negotiations build on the Geneva agreement from May where both sides paused major tariffs for 90 days .

4. China’s Export Decline & Structural Differences

• China’s exports to the U.S. plunged ~35% year-on-year in May, while overall exports grew modestly .

• China remains firm in its “dual-circulation” model, emphasizing domestic growth and self-reliance, while the U.S. seeks non-reciprocal shifts in this structure .

5. Markets React Positively—Cautious Optimism

• Asian markets rallied (e.g., Hang Seng +1.4%) on hopes of progress; oil prices stabilized on deal expectations .

• FX analysts expect a slight boost for the U.S. dollar with reduced trade tension .

6. Outlook: Substantive Agreements or Symbolic Gestures?

• Analysts anticipate tactical deals—like increased U.S. purchases of Chinese goods and fentanyl control collaboration—rather than sweeping structural reforms .