Current situation (June 9, 2025):
- Price: ~$1.00–$1.01 (USD, 1:1 peg to the US dollar).
- Context: USDC is a stablecoin issued by Circle, backed by cash reserves and short-term US Treasury bonds. Operates on Ethereum (ERC-20), Polygon, Solana, and other networks. Market capitalization: ~$61–$64 billion (7th place). Circle's IPO on NYSE (June 5, 2025) under the ticker CRCL bolstered confidence, stock rose by 168%.
Technical forecast for 2026:
- Prices:
- Optimistic: $1.01–$1.05 with increased demand for stablecoins and a weakening dollar.
- Neutral: $0.99–$1.01 (stability within the peg).
- Pessimistic: $0.95–$0.98 under regulatory constraints or loss of trust.
- Levels:
- Support: $0.99–$1.00.
- Resistance: $1.01–$1.03.
- Trend: Neutral, like a stablecoin. RSI (~50) is stable, 50/200 MA are horizontal, volatility is minimal. Transaction volumes rose to $11 trillion in 2025 (60% share of Ethereum L1/L2).
Fundamentals:
- Growth drivers:
- Regulatory clarity: Circle complies with US regulations, which strengthens trust.
- Growth in DeFi usage (TVL ~$50 billion), cross-border payments, and CBDC.
- Staking: APR 1–5% on platforms (Coinbase: 1–3%, Binance higher).
- Circle IPO: valuation of $7.2 billion, partnership with Coinbase (50% of USDC revenues).
- Potential stablecoin legislation in the US, market could grow to $2 trillion by 2028.
- Risks:
- Competition from USDT ($150 billion capitalization) and new stablecoins.
- Regulatory constraints (SEC, MiCA in the EU).
- Historical issues: loss of peg in 2023 due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
- Dependence on US macroeconomics (Fed rates, dollar).
Recommendation:
- Investors: Use USDC to hedge volatility or for staking (APR 1–5%). Buy at $0.99–$1.00, target: stability or income from staking.
- Traders: Trade in the range of $0.99–$1.03, buy below $1.00, sell above $1.02.
- Risk: 1–2% of deposit, consider the risks of losing peg.
Risks: Regulation, competition, macroeconomics, operational disruptions.
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