Written by: SuperEx

Translated by: Baihua Blockchain

Recently, the so-called 'Meme Engine' Pump.fun on Solana has once again stirred the market. Rumors about its upcoming token have sparked strong risk-averse sentiment in the already fragile on-chain ecosystem. Some call it a new benchmark in the attention economy; others label it as the 'number one toxic asset' in the Solana ecosystem.

So, is Pump.fun an untamed dark horse, or the last hurrah of cryptocurrency FOMO culture? The upcoming token launch may be the ultimate test of its real value.

01 What Happened: The Buzz Around Pump.fun's Token Launch

Here's the deal: Pump.fun reportedly plans to raise $1 billion through public and private token sales, with a valuation of up to $4 billion. This news has sent shockwaves through the Solana ecosystem, leading to a surge in risk-averse behavior. Although the official confirmation of the specific issuance date is still pending, hints on their social accounts suggest that there may be moves 'within two weeks'—which aligns with their last statement.

In fact, this is not Pump.fun's first attempt to launch a token. Back in February, they considered a Dutch auction, but at that time, Trump and his wife launched their own MemeCoin, attracting all the attention and liquidity, forcing Pump.fun to temporarily shelve their plans. Now, although the market has slightly warmed up, it has not returned to peak momentum. So, can this token issuance succeed? That's not something we can easily judge—it needs to be viewed from the market's perspective.

1-1 Cold Hard Data

As of June 4th, Pump.fun's cumulative revenue has exceeded $730 million. Sounds impressive, right? But hold on—since February, its daily revenue has sharply declined from nearly $15 million at peak times to just a few million dollars, effectively halving.

1-2 Trading Volume

By the end of 2024, Pump.fun's weekly trading volume hit a record high of $3.3 billion. Nowadays, even reaching a weekly trading volume of $1 billion is worth celebrating. In short, liquidity and user activity have severely depleted after the initial 'frenzy'.

More concerning is that the number of tokens created daily has decreased from a peak of 70,000 to about 30,000. What does this indicate? Users' interest in this 'dice-rolling' game is diminishing.

1-3 Who is Really Making Money?

Pump.fun seems like a fast track to financial freedom, but the reality is far from optimistic. According to Dune data, there were about 594,000 active wallets in May:

  • Only 3.6% of users made over $500 in profit;

  • Only 0.1% of users made over $10,000;

  • Only 27 wallets (about 0.0045%) netted over $100,000.

Meanwhile, 52.5% of users lost money, with some even losing over $1 million.

The logic is simple: the vast majority of users are 'exit liquidity' for the few winners—it's like a casino where everyone thinks they will win, but most end up losing everything.

02 Solana Faces Risk-Averse Withdrawals

As rumors of Pump.fun's token intensify, Solana-based MemeCoins are suffering heavy losses. Within 24 hours of the announcement, major Solana MemeCoins reported losses, and Artemis data shows that Solana ranks third among all chains for net capital outflows.

Essentially, Pump.fun's token plan is seen as an impending liquidity black hole—the market is reacting accordingly.

03 The Controversy of the $4 Billion Valuation

What is the most controversial issue? That would be the staggering $4 billion valuation. By comparison, Yuga Labs had a similar valuation when launching the APE token. So, how can Pump.fun justify such a high valuation?

Crypto researcher @Haotian pointed out bluntly that this valuation is 'severely overestimated'. He raised four points of criticism:

  • Monetizing attention is a short-term game: built on FOMO and speculation, lacking long-term fundamental support.

  • There is no real moat: a new Solana application can easily replace it.

  • Over-engineering damages the spirit of the Meme: Meme culture relies on simplicity—too many features may stifle its appeal.

  • Valuation incentives damage innovation: when traffic monetization outweighs real technology, cryptocurrency veers away from its original purpose.

Another KOL @xingpt pointed out that Pump.fun's 30-day annualized revenue is $77.98 million. With a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $5 billion, its FDV/revenue ratio is about 64—quite a high figure. In comparison, DeFi blue-chip projects like Raydium and PancakeSwap have more stable earnings but more conservative valuations, highlighting Pump.fun's high risk.

04 But not everyone is bearish

There are also supporters who have spoken out. KOL @CryptoV believes that Pump.fun has played a key role in making Solana the main battlefield for on-chain activities. It addresses the full-stack problems from zero liquidity to centralized exchange (CEX) listings—much like the on-chain iPhone. He believes that Pump.fun captures two key indicators of the attention economy: liquidity and screen time.

He also pointed out that with a P/E ratio of only 5, Pump.fun could actually be a value investment. No airdrops, no internal games—just pure product-driven traction. From this perspective, it is more stable than many hype-driven projects.

05 Summary

At first glance, Pump.fun's token plan may just be another market hype event. But beneath the surface lies a deeper struggle of cryptocurrency ideals: value systems, valuation models, the attention economy, and sustainability.

In the short term, the project may still spark a brief frenzy. But in the long run, whether this FOMO-driven business model can establish real defenses remains to be seen. If it successfully builds a complete Meme ecosystem through this token issuance, it might deserve the title of 'on-chain iPhone'. But if this turns out to be the last exit frenzy, it may leave behind nothing but devastation.

The coming weeks are crucial. This is not just a token issuance—it is a live experiment of the on-chain attention economy mechanism.