##中美贸易谈判 CPI is coming, is the market really ready?

This week is a crucial battle, as the Federal Reserve's barometer — CPI and PPI data are about to be released. Rumor has it that the inflation in May may 'accelerate', and the driving force behind it is actually Trump's tariff war. Companies are not foolish; as costs rise, they immediately pass it on to consumers, resulting in — the CPI data rising, with core inflation estimates increasing from 2.7% to 2.9%.

In simple terms, if the Federal Reserve sees this data, it must think twice about cutting interest rates; if inflation can't be contained, how can they inject liquidity? The expectation of interest rate cuts is suddenly put into question.

Looking at the cryptocurrency market, volatility is flatlining. BTC's short-term implied volatility has dropped below 40%, while ETH is still holding steady at 65%. The market seems 'calm on the surface', but in reality, funds are waiting for the big data to land before deciding on a direction. Most traders have simply chosen to sit on the sidelines, hesitating to go long or short.

Meanwhile, regulators have not been idle — the SEC will hold a 'DeFi Roundtable' tonight, and the topic sounds intense. The 'Crypto Market Structure Bill' is also on the agenda, and the ETF space is not peaceful either; the Litecoin ETF is likely to be 'delayed' again.

Ultimately, whether it's macro data or policy signals, this week is a small window determined by the overall situation. Jumping in now might lead to getting on the wrong train; continuing to wait raises the fear of missing key signals.

I have my views, I control my positions, I keep an eye on the rhythm.

For more real-time analysis + strategy sharing, follow the homepage, don't get lost ##中美贸易谈判