Bitcoin $BTC is not only the first cryptocurrency in the world: it is the emotional, financial, and narrative thermometer of the entire crypto ecosystem. And if anything has been demonstrated throughout its history, it is that it operates in cycles. In 2025, we are witnessing how a well-known pattern is repeating, but with nuances that make it unique.
The halving in April 2024 reduced the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Historically, these events tend to create scarcity in the supply of new BTC, which combined with constant (or growing) demand has driven significant rallies in the 12-18 months following. In 2020, for example, the halving was the prelude to the rally towards $69,000. Are we on the verge of something similar?
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has maintained a healthy bullish structure on weekly charts. After consolidating above $65,000 during the first quarter of the year, it managed to break key resistances and is currently facing a strong zone between $85,000 and $92,000, where many expect a possible profit-taking or even a short-term correction. However, if it manages to close weekly candles above $95,000, the scenario for reaching $100,000–120,000 USD becomes increasingly plausible.
But not everything is rosy: volatility is still alive, and although institutional interest (with spot ETFs and sovereign funds entering the game) brings more stability, it also increases regulatory pressure. South Korea, the USA, the EU, and even Paraguay are fine-tuning their crypto policies, which could lead to short-term reactions in price.
Furthermore, the global macroeconomic environment plays a key role. If interest rates decrease towards the end of 2025, risk assets like Bitcoin could receive an additional boost. But if global uncertainty persists, many investors might seek refuge in more traditional assets.
In conclusion: Bitcoin is at a tipping point.
Will we see a new all-time high before the end of the year or a healthy correction towards $70,000?
Both scenarios are viable. What does not change is its prominence.
📊 Are you holding, doing DCA, or waiting for a good correction to enter?
Share your vision in the comments. This market moves, and the community also learns from you.
