The 15 points shared by Liu Run mid-year focus on trend judgment + underlying logic + practical advice, returning to the essence of business, creating unique value, and building solid barriers is the way to cope with AI changes.
I. Opportunities and Challenges Under the AI Wave
1. The Essence of Competition: More frightening than AI replacing humans is competition from peers.
No need to worry about 'AI replacing humans'; the real threat is 'AI has not replaced everyone, but peers use AI to eliminate you.'
2. Job Iteration: Technology eliminates old jobs while creating new ones (but old jobs won't return).
For example: The position of power grid inspector (80,000 people) disappears due to cameras and drones; at the same time, new roles like AI consultants emerge.
3. Business Transformation: Don't do 'restoration of the Ming Dynasty'; aim for 'customers spend less, and you earn more.'
Resisting the obsession with AI/e-commerce is ineffective (customers seek a better experience); the core of transformation is reducing costs and increasing revenue (e.g., Lenovo's promotional video for the Asian Winter Games: AI production costs only 300,000, much more profitable than the traditional 1 million, and saves on photography and travel costs).
4. Creation and Capability: Style can be replicated, but viewpoints are precious.
AI can imitate 'Liu Run's style', but unique viewpoints cannot be replaced; human innovation (e.g., 'Pegasus = horse + wings') fundamentally combines old elements, which can easily be surpassed by AI (Li Shishi lost to AI in Go).
5. Technological Competition: The US and China compete for AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), which relates to future hegemony.
AGI is expected to break the critical point by 2027, potentially solving problems like nuclear fusion and cancer. The country that masters AGI will suppress others in technology and military, leading to intense competition between the US and China.
6. Product Thinking: A robot's 'hand' is more important than its 'legs'.
Legs are 'mobility tools', while hands are 'creation tools' — the functional value changes the world, not the ability to move.
II. The Core Logic of Business Survival
❚ Value, Scarcity, and Barriers
- Value: Breaking through with 'more' (e.g., restaurants: more convenient location, more affordable prices).
- Scarcity: Doing things that 'only you can sell' (e.g., Seven Points Sweet bottles its dine-in mango pudding to make quick profits in the short term, but it's easy to imitate).
- Barriers: Moats that others want to learn but cannot, including: licenses/patents: government permits, technological monopolies (e.g., drug patents);
- Brand: Trust built over time (e.g., Tongrentang vs. small brands; consumers trust the former more; KFC must compensate, while small brands may go bankrupt);
- Management: Economies of scale that reduce costs and increase efficiency (e.g., the higher the sales of Xiaomi cars, the thinner the R&D costs are shared, leading to greater profits).
❚ Financing and Organization
- Financing: Avoid non-professional capital (relatives, coal bosses have distorted risk perception, which can easily lead to disputes); seek professional investors.
- Organization: Don't pursue 'extreme efficiency'; be able to withstand risks (metaphor: a bowl turned upside down can fall with a gust of wind; a bowl placed upright won't spill even if the ball shakes — a delicate organization is fragile, while a 'rough' one can withstand shocks).
III. International Landscape and Business Strategy
China-US Relations: Difficult to repair, don't bet on the US market
The US faces government debt and trade deficits; the solution is to 'reduce imports' rather than 'improve relations to buy Chinese goods,' so businesses should not pin their hopes on the US.
Overseas Strategy: Seize opportunities for easing relations and enter 'countries sanctioned by the US'.
If China-US relations ease, companies should prioritize entering markets suppressed by the US (rather than the US domestic market) to avoid risks.