3 SCENARIOS FOR 2026

1. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Bull case)

• BTC Price: $150,000 – $250,000

• Conditions:

• Mass adoption of ETFs, companies accumulate BTC as reserves.

• Global inflation/instability → demand for digital 'gold'.

• Growth of the lightning network and adoption in developing countries.

• Arguments: Historically, after the halving in 2024, BTC has increased significantly (e.g., 2020–2021) within 12–18 months.

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2. ⚖️ Base Scenario (Neutral case)

• BTC Price: $80,000 – $130,000

• Conditions:

• ETF and institutional support grow slowly.

• Markets become calmer after macroeconomic stress.

• Cryptocurrencies integrate into the financial system, but slowly.

• Arguments: BTC remains a valuable asset, but growth is moderate.

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3. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Bear case)

• BTC Price: $30,000 – $60,000

• Conditions:

• Tight regulations (e.g., the US/EU restrict usage).

• Global market crash or major hacking attack.

• Loss of trust from major investors.

• Arguments: Historically, BTC has fallen by 80% after peaks if there was no fundamental support.

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