Let me explain my thought process for this operation, the time and position of opening the orders are marked in the chart.

First, during the previous rising phase, there was a bearish candle. The reason I didn't try to short there is that the rise was all solid candles (no wicks), indicating that the upward movement faced no resistance. Suddenly, support disappeared, and a small bearish candle with very low trading volume appeared, which I interpreted as a potential trap for shorts or a way to shake off retail traders holding high leverage long positions. At this point, I cannot short, but I also do not recommend going long (in fact, it could be judged that there is a high possibility of a subsequent upward spike).

First order: I noticed that when the spot price surged to 2518.5, it fell back to 2518.0 within one second, and a large number of limit sell orders appeared. I believed there was pressure at this moment, but I was unsure if it would break through, so I only opened a 5u short position.

Second and third orders: There was a large limit buy order maintaining the price at 2517.95. I observed that when BTC started to decline, this limit order was not executed and was quickly withdrawn, dropping to 2516.5. In the first five minutes, the contract open interest decreased, and the long/short ratio of large traders dropped. I believed this indicated that they were selling while maintaining the price, so I boldly shorted and opened two short positions at two local highs.

Fourth order: The spike needs no further explanation. Both BTC and ETH had significant trading volumes in the spot/contract markets, so I boldly opened a position, with an 80% probability of winning. As for where the spike would occur, I didn't calculate it; I relied on intuition and happened to open right at the highest point. This can be calculated, but it is very complex. The main purpose of the spike is to trigger the stop losses of shorts and to utilize a large number of buy orders for unloading. The previous upward movement accumulated many shorts, which can be analyzed through candlestick patterns and open interest data to determine where shorts might open and increase their positions, as well as to calculate liquidation prices and possible stop loss locations. There should have been a large number of shorts stopping out between 2520 and 2525.

This is merely sharing my own thought process while trading; it is not a systematic scientific method and is for reference only.