Well, here comes summer... And Bitcoin is getting sadder and sadder. Some are waiting for a 'summer rally,' while others are waiting for reality. And reality, as always, is tough. Especially if you have hooves and stubbornly bought at the highs.
Why is a decline more likely than growth?
Firstly, liquidity. Summer is vacation season, not just for people but also for major players. Volumes are falling, volatility may increase, and the direction may not be in our favor. In a thin market, a large order is like a stone in a puddle: splashes in all directions.
Secondly, macroeconomics. Rates are not decreasing, inflation is not going away, and the markets are nervous. While the stock market is moving sideways, Bitcoin is in no hurry to rise — it has become too dependent on the 'big guys.' It’s not the same as it was in 2017.
Thirdly, miners are under pressure after the halving: costs have risen, revenues have fallen. They need to sell to survive. And that adds additional pressure on the price.
So... maybe it will grow. Someday. But for now, it doesn’t hurt to acknowledge the obvious: not every summer is a moonshot. Sometimes it’s just heat, dust, and a long sideways movement with a downward slope.
But you see... I’m just observing. Slowly. Stubbornly. With a wise look.
