Whether Bitcoin's price can break through the $150,000 mark by the end of the year has become a hot topic in the market. Currently, Bitcoin's price is fluctuating wildly, once soaring to a record high of $112,000, but then quickly falling below $105,000, which poses a challenge to its ability to reach the $150,000 target by the end of the year.
Bitcoin weekly forms RSI divergence
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's current performance on the weekly chart is similar to the divergence at the cyclical top in 2021, when the price went all the way up, but the RSI showed a downward trend. This similar historical trend makes people doubt whether Bitcoin can reach the $150,000 target by the end of 2025.
The current bearish divergence trend is similar to the bearish trend in 2021, when RSI divergence caused the BTC price to pull back to the 200-week EMA (blue line) and below, by as much as 61%. If BTC repeats the historical trend of 2021 in this round, then Bitcoin may experience a nearly 52% retracement, falling below $58,000.
Bitcoin daily forms an inverted cup and handle pattern
In addition, the Bitcoin daily chart is forming a seemingly inverted cup and handle pattern, with the neckline located near $100,800, forming the current support level. A break below this level would increase the likelihood of Bitcoin falling towards the 200-day EMA (blue line) at $91,000.
At the same time, the RSI of Bitcoin's daily line is also falling synchronously with its price, indicating strong market confidence in continued selling. As of now, the RSI reading is 54, and a break below 50 may intensify downward pressure and indicate that upward momentum is weakening.
Is there a positive correlation between Bitcoin and gold?
However, despite the increasing technical warnings, some analysts remain confident that Bitcoin will reach $150,000. They point out that Bitcoin's current market structure is similar to the explosive growth of gold in the early 21st century, so BTC may replicate gold's historical trajectory, thereby further consolidating the $150,000 valuation target.
According to analysts at CryptoQuant, the NUPL/MVRV ratio breaking through and staying above 1.0 indicates the start of a new round of bullish market, which could potentially push Bitcoin's price to $150,000 to $175,000, recreating the rallies of 2017 and 2021.
Conclusion:
Overall, whether Bitcoin can reach $150,000 by the end of the year depends on the balance of power between bulls and bears. If the technical risks materialize (such as breaking below key support or further deterioration of RSI), a pullback may delay or even disrupt the upward trend;
Conversely, if the macroeconomic environment improves (such as the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates) or institutional demand accelerates, it may still break through historical highs. Investors need to pay close attention to on-chain data, regulatory dynamics, and market sentiment changes to cope with potential volatility.