The most important reason why the copycat season did not come is:

The Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet. Although the pace of shrinking has slowed down since March, the process has not stopped and is expected to continue until January 2026.

At present (2025), the overall liquidity of the market is in a tight state, especially in the short-term financing market. As the Fed continues to shrink its balance sheet, the available funds in the market have decreased and short-term interest rates have risen.

Analysis of the Fed's policy path: When shrinking the balance sheet and interest rate cuts are coming, where will market liquidity and purchasing power go?

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