—— Bulls are weak, high-level fluctuations, pay attention to VWAP pressure signals
1. Market Brief:
BTC yesterday (June 7) closed a standard long bullish candle on the daily chart, reaching a high of 105,900 USDT. However, today (June 8), the price is clearly under pressure, showing continuous fluctuations on the hourly chart, with small bearish candles alternating, indicating weakened bullish momentum and that the market has entered a contest phase.
2. Technical Analysis:
1. VWAP channel suppression is evident
From the chart, it can be seen that the price has repeatedly attempted to break the upper VWAP band (yellow line) but has failed to do so effectively. The current price is suppressed near the mid-band of the VWAP, indicating that funds are attempting to control the market but lack sustained incremental volume.
2. MACD Signal: Bullish Momentum Weakening
The MACD histogram is clearly contracting at a high level. Although the DIF and DEA are still above the zero axis, signs of divergence are beginning to appear, indicating reduced bullish momentum and that there is a risk of weakening in the short term.
3. EMA structural support remains
Although the price has fallen below the hourly EMA7 (105595.7), it is still above the EMA30 (105126.2), indicating that the main trend has not yet reversed. The EMA30 below is a key support; if broken, a pullback confirmation is expected.
4. RSI Indicator Retracement Correction
The hourly RSI has fallen from the overbought zone (around 66) to the 55-60 range, which is a typical high-level correction. If it continues to fall below 50, the market may enter a short-term bearish phase.
5. Trading volume continues to shrink
From the chart, it is evident that after a volume-increasing bullish candle, it is followed by a shrinking volume fluctuation, representing weakened willingness to chase higher prices. The market is in a wait-and-see mode, indicating that the current price level has entered a contest zone between bulls and bears, and caution is needed for sudden volume increases that may lead to directional choices.
4. Conclusion from the European Pony:
The current market is at a sensitive critical point, with the main funds attempting to control the market, but insufficient volume limits further upward movement. VWAP suppression and MACD divergence have become the main short-term risk signals, making it unwise to blindly chase prices in the short term. Stay flexible, and focus on the 105126-106000 range fluctuations. A firm hold or breakout with increased volume should be assessed for trend continuation.
