1. Sharp decline in the burn rate:
- The SHIB burn rate decreased by 8.62% over 24 hours, with only 4.5 million tokens burned, according to data from Shibburn.
- This is a continuation of a monthly decline that began in May, which previously reached a 100% drop in the middle of the month.
- The burn aims to reduce supply and raise price, so this decline may negatively affect the near-term performance of the currency.
2. Whale movements and selling pressures:
- An unknown whale transferred 2.54 trillion SHIB (worth $31 million) to the institutional section of Coinbase, which is usually interpreted as a precursor to a large sale.
- Data indicates a 1.8% decrease in whale holdings since February, with a dormant wallet transferring 105 billion SHIB to Binance after 3 years of inactivity.
- Nevertheless, net inflows to whale wallets recorded a 1,448% increase, reflecting a divergence in behavior.
3. The surprising price performance despite negative indicators:
- SHIB's price rose by 2% to $0.00001286, defying expectations of a 28% crash due to the decline in burning.
- The price rose 4.8% in 24 hours and 24.4% over the week, despite a 28.8% drop in trading volume (a sign of declining trader interest).
4. Technical and structural challenges:
- Absence of an automatic burning mechanism: hampers the sustainability of supply reduction.
- Weak network activity: active addresses have decreased by 68% since December, and the total value locked in Shibarium (Shiba Inu network) has dropped to $2.15 million.
- Technical resistance: the price faces resistance at $0.000014–0.000015, where 25.74 trillion SHIB is concentrated in 34,000 addresses, and breaking this level could lead to sharp volatility.
5. Mixed future outlook:
- Short-term pessimism: warnings of a bearish head and shoulders pattern that could drive the price down to $0.000009 (a 28% decline).
- Long-term optimism: if the Bitcoin market reaches $200 trillion (according to Blockstream's director's forecasts), SHIB's price could leap to $0.001364 assuming it is linked to Bitcoin's growth.
- The impossibility of reaching $1: requires burning 99.99998% of the current supply (589 trillion tokens), which would take 13,271 years at current rates.
Summary:
Despite the current resilience of the Shiba Inu price against the pressures of declining burning and whale movements, risks remain due to weak fundamentals and the absence of widespread commercial adoption. Its future depends on developing real utility through 'Shibarium' or macroeconomic surges, but strong volatility may continue in the near term.#MarketPullback
